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A Few More Semi-Random Thoughts on Pakistan
Posted by Stephen Green · 5 November 2007
Rather than bury the lede, I'll come right out and say it: If Pakistan isn't already a failed state, wait a minute. A little background. I always thought of Pakistan as the Indian Subcontinent's half-retarded version of Turkey. Pakistan was never meant to be as thoroughly secularized as Turkey -- quite the opposite -- but otherwise it was politically similar. In other words, a democracy backed up by the Army. Whenever democratic politics got out of hand, the Army would step in, clean things up, then restore civilian government, until the next time. There were, however, a couple important differences. First, the Turks could count on the Army to at least run a clean government, if not a democratic one. Second, Turkey might have the Kurds to worry about, but they never had the North-West Frontier Province. If you looked at the map, the NWFP is just another province of Pakistan. If you looked at the ground, Pakistan rarely maintained even notional control there. Add two and two together, and you get, at best, three. Let me try and be a bit more clear. The NWFP is an uncontrolled breeding ground for terrorists and tribalism. And Pakistan's history of swapping corrupt civilian governments for corrupt military governments is turning the entire country into a frontier province. General Musharraf has already been in extra-legal power since 1999. The people were, rightly, expecting civilian control to return before too much longer. Well, Musharraf broke his end of the deal. Now the people are mad, the Taliban/al-Qaeda complex is more or less running the show in NWFP, and the Army is suffering from low morale and even lower public esteem. Oh, and opposition leader Benazir Bhutto has just been shown up as more-or-less useless. (That assessment may seem unfair, but that doesn't make it less correct.) If the Army can maintain control over an increasingly frustrated, ungovernable, and radicalized country, then... well, it can maintain control, but that's all the Army will ever manage. And it can't do so indefinitely. If civilian government can be restored, it will have to fight the Taliban/al-Qaeda complex with an Army even less equipped to do so than it is now. And, oh yeah, they have some nukes. It's not the beginning of the end for Pakistan--it looks more and more like the end of the end. Comments
TO: Stephen Green ....is someone with an understanding of Isakawa Root-Cause Diagrams? When you REALLY need them? Regards, Chuck(le) ....provided they were not biased FOR Islamofascism. P.P.S. Nor suffering from some form of ennui-angst. Posted by: Chuck Pelto at November 5, 2007 03:09 PMYour analysis is spot on. The other big difference between Turkey and Pakistan in the morale of the Turkish troops is fairly high (which you sorta alluded to). The Turks have a military clan that is just nuts, making for good soldiers. Posted by: David at November 5, 2007 03:09 PMTO: David & Stephen Green Maybe it is. However, this begs the question of "So what.....' '...do we do about it?" If it fails, who ends up in 'power' there? And, if it the Islamofascists, the follow-on question is "What does US do about it?" There is a high probability that if Pakistan fails, the Islamofascists will gain control of nuclear technology. What do the libertarians propose US do in that situation? There are several courses of action that are immediately apparent to any reasonably prudent individual: [1] Wait until NYC or DC of LA go up in a burst of fissionable materials and then turn Pakistan into a parking lot for India. What's YOUR choice, David? Stephen? Regards, Chuck(le) Sadly, if the worng people get their hands on the weapons a Hiroshima job is in the works. If not us, India with us looking the other way. Posted by: David at November 5, 2007 03:31 PMTO: David You're NOT answering the 'question'. Regards, Chuck(le) What part of my answer is your number 3 don't you get. Posted by: David at November 5, 2007 05:03 PMI wonder what the current state of Pakistan's weapon production program is. Could Musharraf, on his way out, order the current arsenal and production sites destroyed, or at least rendered inoperable? Do Islamists have enough scientists and engineers trained and left over from the A.Q. Khan network to reconstitute the program in less than say, 5 years? Would such an order be followed, or would it be taken as a signal to start smuggling weapons and equipment out? Posted by: Eric J at November 6, 2007 07:11 AMIn From the Cold's got a good analysis of Pakistan's nukes: Basically, we don't know. He's also got a link to Stanley Kurtz's new piece on wither Pakistan. Basically, no one knows. Very grim situation. Posted by: rbj at November 6, 2007 01:10 PMTO: David "What part of my answer is your number 3 don't you get." -- David I can't help it if you have limitations in your thinking.... Regards, Chuck(le) |
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