What’s going on in Race '08 – and why the hell do we care already? It's not even summer yet, and already it seems we have two winners (Giuliani, Clinton), a bunch of also-rans (everybody not named Clinton or Giuliani), a failed sure thing (McCain), a sure loser (Clinton in November), a dark horse (Thompson), and a possible stalking horse (also Thompson). Of the eight names I just mentioned, we get just four people. That fact shouldn't make you forget that there are Edwards – er, upwards – of seven hundred other candidates, both real and imagined.

Unless, of course, you'd rather forget the whole lot of them, given that it's not yet even April of the year before the summer before the autumn of the election. Which will lead directly into the winter of somebody's discontent, or possibly everybody's. Yet no matter who the winner is, we might know who the candidates will be in as little as 305 days from right now. Race '08 is the seventh I've followed closely, but I've never seen anything like it. Nobody has. But mostly it makes me feel like yawning.

Or maybe I'm yawning because of Bush Exhaustion Syndrome. I'm sure even his most die-hard fans are suffering from it by now.

What's going on in the Middle East – or does anybody really know? Christopher Hitchens reports that Mission Accomplished is an accomplished mission north of Baghdad, after spending his Christmas vacation in Iraqi Kurdistan. Then again, Hitch almost-but-not-quite endorsed Peter Galbraith's plan to partition Iraq. Confused? You ain't seen nothin' yet.

Turkey is so impressed with the EU's "soft power" and "moral authority" that Ankara has put EU membership on the back burner. Instead:

Semih Idiz, a foreign affairs columnist, goes further: "The EU is off the radar. It has confirmed Turkey's worst expectations. At present, it's an irrelevancy."

And further down in the same Guardian column:

The "reformed Islamist" government in Ankara is also cultivating the Arab and Muslim world. It signalled a new strategic relationship with Egypt this week. It sent peacekeeping troops to Lebanon last year. It talks to Iran when many will not or cannot. Close links to Israel have not prevented the building of ties with Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. And despite tensions with the Kurds, Turkey is northern Iraq's main economic partner. Istanbul is the likely venue of next month's Iraq summit.

Are we looking at a Turkey young and fit enough to attempt a reconquista of its lost southern and eastern territories? No, not really. But if you look closely, you'll see a Turkey willing and able to flex its muscles in ways that Europe forgot about generations ago.

And what does Iran have to say about all this? Don't bother asking – Iran doesn't know what's going on even in Iran.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad planned to visit the UN in New York last weekend. Before he could leave, somebody over there authorized the kidnapping of 15 British sailors and marines. Once Ahmadinejad was forced to cancel his trip, the AP reported that, "Iran softens stance on British sailors." Two days later, it was clear that nothing much had changed, and that Tehran still might charge the sailors with espionage or some such bogus charge, as well as showing video of the one female sailor (whom they promised to release*), wearing a "modest" head scarf.

Is anyone firmly in charge in Tehran? Probably not, and certainly not Ahmadinejad. Even so, Matt Yglesias thinks that Tehran and Damascus are itching for excuses to get out of Palestine. Isn't that cute?

What's going on in Europe – and does it matter anymore? Neither NATO nor the EU had much to say about the new Iranian hostage situation. Meanwhile, in France, Muslim insurgents took over a major Paris train station and surrounding area. Almost nobody seems to recognize a connection between the two events.

What's going on here in Monument? Just this.

UPDATE: *And who now maybe they won't release. There is a lot of confusion in Tehran this week.