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Stay Focused
Posted by Stephen Green  ·   3 April 2006

In a column yesterday, Mark Steyn worried, “If this is a ‘long war,’ it needs a rhetoric that can go the distance.” He’s right, of course, and Steyn is also correct when he says our current political rhetoric isn’t good enough. Steyn is more right than he might know, if it’s true that the media is the “arm of decision” in this Long War. Putting those two things together with many other things I’ve gleaned over two decades of reading Austin Bay and Jim Dunnigan, I realized something:

Compared to the Current Mess, winning the Cold War was a walk in the park with Giselle Bundchen in a thin white summer dress, and all the lawn sprinklers running cold.*

Now, that’s true only to the point that you and Giselle might get in an argument so heated that you both pull out knives and stab each other to death over the course of an hour and a half.** And sometimes your young cousins would bomb each other to death. But the point remains: We’re in tough times.

(The next two paragraphs might not contain analysis you haven’t seen elsewhere, but they do provide valuable context for this essay. Please take the extra 15 second to read them.)

In the Cold War, the threat of losing an American city or three was quite small. On the other hand, the “small” wars we had to fight cost us nearly 100,000 soldiers. The Soviets knew that to strike even one American city meant total nuclear annihilation for the USS of R. But the Soviets could push us is places like Korea and Vietnam, and force us to commit hundreds of thousands of troops – tens of thousands of whom would die.

In the Long War, things are quite the other way around. We get to choose where to push – and the Bad Guys, despite what you see on the news, aren’t very good at fighting back. If the Long War lasts as long as the Cold War, and we were to keep losing soldiers at the present rate… then we’d lose 75% fewer soldiers than we lost in Korea and Vietnam combined. But you can be goddamn sure that given the chance, our Islamist foes would cut the heart out of New York. They damn near did it once, using little more than boxcutters. Imagine what they would do with badder weapons.

The Cold War was easier in another respect: there’s really nothing like the ever-present threat of total annihilation to focus the mind. Today’s threat is more abstract, and that makes it easier for most normal people to keep their heads in the sand.

If we’re going to win a long, ideological war, we need our primary schools to our children what patriotism is - and for the most part, they don’t. We need our college professors to give our best and brightest the intellectual ammunition to confront our destroyers – and for the most part, they don’t. We need our public thinkers to defend our laws and our way of life against foreign aggression – and for the most part, they don’t. We need our entertainers to choose the home team – and for the most part, they don’t. We need our politicians to show the backbone of Churchill, but for the most part, they don’t. And we need our military to understand, embrace, and put everything on the line for their country.

One out of six? That’s pretty bad. Is it enough? Probably not.

I said before it took the constant threat of a nuclear launch for us to keep our focus during the Cold War – end even then it was a hit or miss affair. It’s pretty obvious right now that we lack the tools to keep our focus during the Long War. I know exactly what it would take to get our focus – but it’s so terrible, it’s almost worse than losing***.

Better then if we had more allies at home. But we do not and probably will not. And that means we risk losing more Americans – soldiers abroad and perhaps countless thousands of civilians right here at home.

So get on board, people – it’s not too late.


UPDATE: You wouldn't think that Jill Carroll's story is related to this, but it is:

Jill Carroll will not be the last Westerner to be kidnapped in Iraq, but she may be the last one released. Kidnapping is the only real way the insurgents can get airtime these days, which is why Jihadi propaganda comes with kneeling captives at their feet. Releasing Carroll was an experiment, one that failed from the insurgency's point of view. Carroll was released and immediately disavowed statements she made in captivity. The insurgents were exposed as a cheap propagandists, and their message was blurred in the celebration surrounding Carroll's return home. Killing a hostage makes a far more drastic statement than releasing one does, which is precisely why we're unlikely to see any more hostages released.

Well. We know what our enemies are willing to do to stir emotions. What I'm trying to propose here is something well short of that.





*This (the notion, not Giselle) is a small part of something I’ve been playing with off and on for a couple months. For lack of anything better, the working title is “The Great Big Blob of Essay.” What’s it about? Dunno – it’s still just a great big blob.

**Where’s she hiding a knife in that wet dress? Don’t ask.

***I imagine this essay will be the umpteenth where my critics will see what I’ve written through the narrow lens of the Iraq Campaign. I’m speaking broadly here, and it takes a special kind of spite not to see that.

Comments

http://thefinman.blogspot.com/2006/04/finman-exclusive-project-ugly-exposed.html

Awesome

Posted by: Mr.me at April 3, 2006 12:41 AM

What you're advocating- in respect to what opinion writers ought to do- sounds eerily like China's efforts to get its newspapers to promote the "harmonious society" above all else.

I'd actually say that the fact that journalists can criticize and challenge our administration's management of the war is healthier for the so-called "long war" than any concerted effort to get them to flex their patriotic muscles.

Posted by: SinoMatt at April 3, 2006 07:18 AM

An interesting essay and dead on. However, I don't recall us being all that united during the cold war. More united than today, yes.

In the 50's there were a few voices of dissent, but as we entered the 60's, the united front began to unravel at home. Cuba was a disaster. Vietnam was a major catalyst. By the mid-seventies, we were on the defensive and socialism was on the march around the globe. And that was just fine with many here.

It took Reagan in the early 80's and his policies to arm, to confront the soviets and not appease them, that finally in the end prevailed. This was not done without massive oppostion.

Reagan's policies were in no small part aided by the fact that the Soviets had run their economy into the ground and could not possibly hope to outrun us in an arms race or even sustain a decent standard of living for their own people.

The Vietnam anti-war movement didn't just die, it morphed into anti-Americanism that has opposed all of our military efforts. El Salvador was vigorously opposed. Nicaragua's Sandanistas had and have many friends here. Their is no inisgnificant sentiment to abandon Taiwan and Israel to the wolves.

I think what is different now is that many here actively advocate for our defeat at the hands of the terrorists. Remember Michael Moore's statement that the Iraqi 'insurgents' "are today's minutemen, and they will win." Or the proffesor who wished a "million Moghadishus(sp?) on the US."
This coupled with a relentlessly hostile press.

But most worrisome of all, today we have an opposition party that has no alternative policy, but that simply reflexively opposes any move this administration makes and cravenly exploits this war for partisan political purposes in a manner that would have been unthinkable 40 years ago. A party that has sold out to its lunatic fringe and lost, in its desperation to regain power, any sense of pulling together to overcome a common foe. They don't even admit to the full extent of the danger of today's situation. On a sinking ship, their only concern would be going down first class.

I wish we had an opposition party that we could take seriously and I think that this will hurt us in the long run.

Almost as damning is this administration's failure to articulate its positions. Steyn and Hitchens and others have done far more to articulate the nature of the enemy we face.

Posted by: Tim P at April 3, 2006 07:38 AM

I agree that the media will have a critical role in a long-term ideological struggle. But you need to look in much more detail at what power each segment of the media wields, and how that power can be used to help the West or its enemies. For example, does the news media or Hollywood have the most power to shape perceptions? If an ideological struggle is a struggle of narratives, fiction may be as influential as fact. What is the role of bloggers, and can citizen media be more powerful than traditional media? And so on...

You're on to something important, but you really need to look at the fine detail. Saying that "the media" may be the arm of decision is like saying that airpower was the arm of decision in WWII. It may be true, but it's not very helpful. You need to know what role each type of airpower - fighters, heavy bombers, etc. - played and how they had to be used in order to be decisive.

Posted by: Andrew Zalotocky at April 3, 2006 07:40 AM

On Jill Carroll:

Nah, I think her release is a sign of weakness.

Looking back, the ability to cut off a living human being’s head with a knife that takes about 10 strokes, video tape the struggle and the victim screaming while you and your henchmen yell “God is great”, and hold up the severed head by the hair for the camera can only be done people that have a souls that bubbled up from the depths of hell.

Well my friends, we have sent many of those souls back down to where they belong. I’m not saying today’s terrorists are softer and can thus be reasoned with. All I’m saying is, “WE ARE WINNING!”

Posted by: The American Patrol at April 3, 2006 08:02 AM

Last week NYTimes ran an AP piece on Carroll that said "it is unclear why the kidnappers released her." I wrote them, pointing out that it is obvious why they released her: her family didn't simply assert that killing her would not serve their cause, the took active steps to make sure that her death would hurt their cause.

Posted by: aaron at April 3, 2006 08:46 AM

We need to start calling a spade a spade.

Or grab them by their short hairs to get their attention.

Posted by: Sandy P at April 3, 2006 08:51 AM

This essay explains the reasons why so many Americans seem bent on the destruction of their nation (to those of us who still believe in the Lockean, individualist tradition that underlies classical liberalism and the U.S. Constitution).

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=260#comments

Posted by: Paul at April 3, 2006 10:37 AM

Stephan,
For a major expansion on your spot on thinking here, check out the following two essays.
Well, they are less media oriented than your post, but certainly info the media and your readers should be aware of.
Mike

http://www.policyreview.org/000/corn.html

http://www.policyreview.org/000/mazarr.html

Posted by: Mike Daley at April 3, 2006 07:23 PM

Stephen - in your essay you listed a number of things that we need in order to win a long ideological war. In the process of enumerating those needs, you would follow up with suggestions basically saying that "they don't."

Unfortunately, those descriptions aren't quite accurate.

Where it comes to the primary schools teaching patriotism, it's not that they don't - the problem is that they won't. Not just do not, WILL not.

Same with the public thinkers and the need to defend laws and our way of life - they WON'T.

Ditto the entertainers.

As to the politicians showing some amount of backbone amounting to WSC, I believe the more accurate definition is that they CAN'T - because doing so would so peg them as being "extremist" or racisthomophobebigotsexistblahblahblah that they could never get a fair shake in the media. The sine qua non of politics these days is compromise, and anyone who indicates that they are not willing to compromise on an issue that tickles the public fancy instantly becomes a nail sticking up, requiring a largish hammer to strike down.

Posted by: JD at April 3, 2006 09:24 PM

I believe that media has indeed taken sides in this conflict.

I also believe their declining market share (and relavence) is directly proportional to their consumers' recognizing what side they are on.

Pals have been blowing up Israelis for five decades. The Islamists widened their target set beginning in 1979 and had a good long run to get used to "gestures" from Western countries in response. They killed my friends beginning in 1983 and lately in 2002 and 05.

The Coalition has been in existence for going on five years. It's participants have contributed what they could, based on their national interests and political climates. The western powers on the outside of the active conflict - france & most of continental Europe - are watching the demographic and economic countdown to the time when they will be outnumbered in their own countries and too broke to pay further jizra. Our media sees Bush as a long standing affront to be corrected, and relegates the Islamist threat to at best a background noise in their news cycles, at worst as a tool to be used toward their own ends.

Stephen, I too fear the "what they might do" that will finally get us into the fight we should be fighting already. Given the political realities on the home ground and the insanity that passes for strategic thinking on the part of the enemy, I think it is more "when", not "if" the moment will come.

The Islamists desperately need their own incarnation of Martin Luther. We can always find another Lemay. We will, too.

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 3, 2006 10:33 PM

I think you meant U of SSR

Posted by: anonymous at April 4, 2006 12:12 AM

I am old enough to remember the early years of the Cold War. There was plenty of dissent in those days. And much of it was surrenderist. The slogan, "Better Red Than Dead," caused many to question the Mutually Assured Destruction policy. Unilateral Disarmers, under the "Ban the Bomb" banner, compelled conservatives to advance a populist movement in defense of MAD. The lead intellectual of the movement was: Gerhart Niemeyer.
Download this PDF file for insight:
www.mmisi.org/ir/33_01/henry.pdf
Respectfully, I cannot support any revival of MAD where the other party is Islamofascists. As Denis Prager recently said, the current enemy is much more vile than were Nazism, Japanese Militarism and Communism. I advise everyone to support application of the Bush-Doctrine of Pre-emption, in whatever form that takes. I only recently discovered the depth of perversity of the enemy. I will never waver in my belief in the need for resolution and finality in face of the current proliferation crisis. The future is in the balance.

Posted by: earthpapa at April 4, 2006 12:15 AM

Respectfully, I cannot support any revival of MAD where the other party is Islamofascists.


I concur. MAD was a 20th-C way to destroy large, centralized enemies in known locations.

I do not think it is going to be useful against our current adversary, which is small, decentralized, and operates covertly.

We need to develop new strategies. Unfortunately, the Democrats seem to have gone reactionary, insisting that the old strategies will be effective against the new adversary.

Posted by: rosignol at April 4, 2006 05:00 AM

On the sad state of the opposition party:

There were plenty of Americans who were against getting into the Iraq war in the first place. Well, right or wrong, now we're here, and some of us (initially anti-war) folks would really like to get over our initial opposition and deal with current reality. I would be willing to back a practical set of solutions to the situation we've done a fair amount to create in Iraq, and I'm not tied to a political party enough to care who offers it. I'm looking for a way to move forward, instead of looking back at the haphazard way we entered the war.

Problem is, no one is articulating that clear set of solutions. Not liberal academia, which is still stuck on "we shouldn't have gone there in the first place." Not Hollywood, which is stuck on storytelling and muckraking. Not K-12, which is stuck with "No Child Left Behind" and patriotism isn't on any standardized tests. Not the Republicans, who are still covering their asses from the deceptions it took to get us into the war.

And not the Democrats, not yet. They're too busy rehashing the recent past to articulate any strong ideas about how to move Iraq into the future. There are a lot of reasons the current political majority often look like idiots when it comes to the war. But it would be really, really nice--and much more effective--to stop finger-pointing and start problem-solving.

Let's have a talk about how many soldiers it would take at this point to quash the insurgency. Let's talk about private industries and what it would take to invest in Iraq's infrastructure. Let's get some people who know the history of the bloody Shiite-Sunni conflicts in the region to talk about what we can do to prevent civil war.

Not hearing those conversations from any prominent leaders, even though I'm searching for them.

Posted by: grad03 at April 4, 2006 09:06 AM

Well, if you are in for a long fight, its best to have a set of goals in mind and a way to get to them. And since no party has offered that up, I decided to do them a favor and help out.

To help achieve the goal of making Transnational Terrorism hard to sustain, you need something to combat it. As military power, law enforcement, statecraft and everything else the Executive can muster isn't up to the task, that leaves the fight up to Congress with its powers. Heaven help us as the spineless, gelatinous, wooly masses of the Congress don't have any courage to do so. Too afraid of their Power to unleash the American People. Might let the People realize that we can be very effective. Can't have that in the Zero Party State, now, can we?

Now, as for the Muddle East, anything is better than Totalitarian States hooking up with Transnational Terrorists. And I do mean anything, even absolute chaos.

Next up is education. Since 1958 Johnny Can't Read and now, in 2005, he still can't at about the same rate as 1958. All the money poured into helping education has not helped one bit. Time to scrap a system that tried to address a problem and, instead institutionalized the problem itself. Yes, I offer up something for that, too. Remove the establishment, block grant the funds, set up the goals of education to be met and pay proportionately based on performance without regard to institution. That said, the Federal funds can *only* be used for education. Let the State and local folks handle it, for it is their problem.

So, before I go pointing a finger in blame or expecting some politico to save me, I first have to see what there might be that would actually be 'effective' in saving me. Because, if I am drowning, someone handing me a brick is not something I need. But a helping hand is always appreciated.

And if this post is a more or less duplicate, forgive me as there seems to be a problem with such here and I needed to retype it.

If my solutions have been presented before, it is because the same questions have been asked before.

Posted by: ajacksonian at April 4, 2006 11:38 AM

...and the jacksonian's questions have indeed been asked here and elsewhere many times, usually answered with the same basic approach to the problems stated.

And. Nothing. Gets. Done.

Blogfaddah has it about correct - if anyone of any national credence picks up those ideas and runs with them, then we will absolutely see President Clinton Part Deux come 2009, because that will split the GOP in the South and the Intermoutain West sufficiently enough for a 40% popular vote to carry the day - IOW, Perot redux.

If the GOP had stayed with the Contract With America rather than betting on Pork Futures, they'd be in a whole lot better shape right now.

Posted by: JD at April 4, 2006 05:32 PM

One other thing: The Russkies didn't want to die in the cold war. In the long war, these nutjobs want to die so they can get their virgins.

Why they think they have to die to get virgins I don't know. I'm going to the San Diego Comic Con this summer, there will be plenty of virgins there.

Posted by: jim at April 5, 2006 10:26 AM

The problem with the Left is that they are about moral relativism, not American and Western exceptionalism. They don't believe that what we have to offer is any better than what someone else has to offer, just "different", which results in a lack of morals and not understanding right from wrong. When you lose that, you lose the backbone to act in defense of yourself, or your country.
Unfortunately, the media, the public schools, the libraries are all stacked with Lefties.

Posted by: Dave at April 5, 2006 01:05 PM

"the libraries are all stacked with Lefties."

Is this a pun?

Posted by: shingles at April 5, 2006 01:32 PM

JD - That is sad, but true.

Bringing accountability via Treaty and trade relations is difficult, and the Executive can only go so far.

Terrorism lives on money from wealthy countries with an interest in destabilizing the Nation State for their own reasons. The job of Congress is to ensure regularization of trade, safety of such trade and ensuring that trade does not go to help the avowed enemies of the United States.

They took an Oath on that.

This President has exercised powers only a bit less than Lincoln, FDR, Eisenhower and JFK and is castigated for doing so. By not naming the problem properly early on and putting Congress on notice that Terrorism in all its forms that destroy the integrity of Nation states and the relations between them is destroying the foundation of this country and the entire conception of State to State relations.

When each and every member of the Executive branch testifies before Congress and in response as to how the war on Terrorism goes, comes up with: 'Well, we are doing everything we can, but it is not enough', one would think that Congress would figure out that there is a SECOND branch of Government that gets War powers.

Perhaps they don't read the document they Swear to uphold.

Perhaps they have memory problems.

Perhaps they fear using their powers as it would leave them accountable.

And, perhaps, they fear putting the American people's courage and ingenuity to the test of bringing down global Terrorist organizations.

535 Members of Royalty upon the Hill.

I will not vote for any of these Congresscritters ever again for anything.

For if they cannot defend the very *concept* of this Nation, then they are, through inaction, working to bring it down.

Posted by: ajacksonian at April 6, 2006 01:51 PM



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