Daniel Pipes echos my assessment:
Israel's prime minister, Ariel Sharon, has suffered a massive brain hemorrhage; at the very least, his long political career appears to be over. What does that mean for Israeli politics and for Arab-Israeli relations?
Basically, it signals a return to business as usual.
Read the whole thing.
I'm not so sure. Sharon pointed the way and achieved electorial success. His ideas won't pass with the man.
I DISAGREE.
Kadima might still win.
With Livni or Mofaz or Olmert.
The chioce is plain:
Kadima offers: unilateral withdrawal from the WB (retaining most LARGE settlements)to defensible borders; a fence; and more or less the same domestic/economic policies.
Likud offers status quo in WB and more radical domestic/economic changes.
Labor offers nothing.
A credible Kadima candidate STILL would get the Kadima slate 35-40 seats. More than Likud or Labor.
The next PM will be Kadima.
The boldest political move would be LIVNI - an attractive woman and a hardliner.
The safest move would be Olmert.
The cleverest would be MOFAZ. A General.
he would kicj Bibi's buitt.
I REMIND YOU: Bibi is not a bad guy at all. A free marketeer, too.
Bibi is simply the most hawkish and most skeptical of all the PM candidates when it comes to the jihadoterrorists/islamofascists/arab thugs in gaza and the WB.
IS THIS SO WRONG!?
The biggest reason Pipes is wrong is this:
it is just an unavoidable/inescapable inevitable fact that a there will only be unilateral division between Iasrael ansd the arabs of the disptued territories.
there is no one to negotitate with.
not abbas or hamas or any ofd the others.
there are NO MODERATES on the other side.
if you think so, then show me one factual event which demonstrates it.
in this light, it matters not who kadima picks or who israel picks.
That's interesting and all, but what does it have to do with Vince Young and the Longhorns? WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTT
hmmmmmmmm......An American perspective, perhaps:
Lincoln begat Johnson; but
McKinley begat Teddy Roosevelt;
Harding begat Coolidge;
FDR begat Truman;
JFK begat LBJ.
TR, Coolidge, Truman and LBJ receive some pretty high marks from "certain" historians, depending on who you like to read.
My bottom line here is that we won't know until the Isreali press starts pounding on whoever fills Sharon's considerable shoes, who then proceeds to effectively pound back and get things done.
More than this, may your new baby flourish and prosper!
