Vodkapundit - A Pre-Post Mortem

A Pre-Post Mortem

Posted by Stephen Green · 4 January 2006

There's never a good time to die, but Ariel Sharon's timing couldn't be worse. As I write this, I half expect Sharon to pop half out of bed and shout, "I'm not dead yet!" But no matter when Sharon gives his last, his political career is already dead.

The important question for Israel is: How much life is left in Sharon's policies and politics?

Known as "The Bulldozer," Prime Minister Sharon remade Israeli life using the same operational genius (and disregard for casualties) that General Sharon used against the Egyptian Army in 1973. Since assuming office in 2001, Sharon has completely remodeled Israel's defensive situation – by putting the Palestinian Authority on the defensive, militarily, politically, and morally. Typically, Sharon acted unilaterally and, at least in his mind, in the best interests of his country.

Still fighting new battles at the age of 77, Sharon's most recent project was to remake Israel's domestic situation. By forcing Jewish settlers out of Gaza, Sharon angered many of his rightwing allies in the Likud Party. By doing so without a formal treaty with the PA, Sharon completely alienated Israel's leftwing Labor Party. Trapped in the center – much like his division was once trapped behind Egyptian lines – Sharon came up with a creative solution: last November, he founded a new political party, Kadima. The goal was to create a centrist party to formally pursue Sharon's security goals, without being beholden to crazies on the left or the right.

Kadima's platform mostly ignores domestic policies, except for the expressed desire to move Israel away from its parliamentary system, even if only a little. Instead, Kadima's focus is on security matters – specifically, preserving Israel as a Jewish state by disengaging from the Palestinian territories. Furthermore – and world opinion be damned – Sharon's Kadima was dedicated to finishing the security fence between Israel and proto-Palestine.

Now Sharon is incapacitated, almost certainly permanently. His successor is Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who is an unknown quantity outside Israel. Only two months old, the rest of Kadima's roster is uncertain at best. Can Sharon's new party survive without the Bulldozer to plow through the entrenched opposition? It's hard enough to create a new party out of thin air, even with as active and energetic leader as Sharon. Without Sharon, I worry Kadima – and the policies it represents – is doomed to failure.

If it seems I worry too much, it's for good reason. Forget my understandable overreaction following the Passover Seder Bombing in 2002. Then keep in mind the impossibility of a real peace between Israel and Palestine. It's my firm belief that Sharon's Disengagement/Fence/Targeted-Violence trifecta is Israel's best hope for security.

Who is waiting in the wings, now that Sharon is gone? There's Bibi Netanyahu on the right, and on the left… there's pretty much no one of the necessary stature and backbone.

Bibi might mean well, but he's too beholden to the "Greater Israel" crowd (and perhaps too morally compromised) to stay on Sharon's path. Assuming, of course, he even wanted to.

The Bulldozer spent his life seeking out and fighting and winning impossible battles. Some might even say "unnecessary." His last battle was to create a new party to carry on his sensible policies after he passed from the scene. But for the first time in his long and storied life, Sharon abandoned the fight before it was won. Sharon's life is probably ended, and his political life certainly is. With that, Israel's security may have become as uncertain as Sharon's future is already settled.

Comments

This may be the most--sadly--true thing that you've written in some time. I wonder what Israel's immediate future will be.

Posted by: zombyboy at January 4, 2006 11:37 PM

We will miss you, Arik.

Posted by: yk at January 5, 2006 08:58 AM

I quibble at 'abandoned'; it's not like Sharon chose to have a stroke.

But otherwise, good post.

Posted by: Moe Lane at January 5, 2006 09:01 AM

Steve, I think the battle that will ensue in Israeli politics will be the Likud/Greater Israel group versus the Sharon-ite disengagement group. The Left is pretty much irrelevant now. I don't think Labor has a chance with it's "peace" platform, given the last few months of growing chaos in Gaza. There is no Palestinian "government" to negotiate with. Abbas? He couldn't control a parking lot. No one respects him, he commands no loyalty, he is marginalized and pretty much ignored. Hamas is the big elephant in the room, and we will have to wait until the Pali "elections" to see how big a victory they pull off. Read Caroline Glick in the Jerusalem Post. She is one of the major voices who is outraged that Sharon gave away land to the Palis. She thinks Israel should demand results from Abbas before any more land deals. But Sharon seemed to realize that the Wall, unilateral declarations of a final border, and a "fortress Israel" that was increasingly ignoring its Arab neighbors and tying its economy to Europe and the West was the path that would work. I think he was right. There is no point negotiating with Abbas, the PA, or Hamas. Give the Palis their "state" and get on with it.

Posted by: Scott in CA at January 5, 2006 09:30 AM

Good post, tho I take exception with your first sentence. Every day you go back would have been a worse day for it to happen. He has been moving forward so a day back is a lost step. There have been some very servere steps that I have strongly disagreed with, ex. dropping that bomb on the apartment complex to kill one man, but the Israelis are in a tough spot and he has made a difference.

Posted by: Blaine at January 5, 2006 09:36 AM

Netanyahu isn't wedded to the Greater Israel concept. In 1997 he made news for having a "final status" map that had Israel withdrawing from about 40% of Judea and Samaria.

Posted by: David Gerstman at January 5, 2006 09:55 AM

All Things Beautiful TrackBack 'Rebel With A Cause' Sharon Suffers A Stroke

Posted by: Alexandra at January 5, 2006 11:32 AM

Stephen; your analysis is absolutely correct. I only hope that Israel will realize that Sharon's path was, and is, the correct one

Posted by: Mike in Colorado at January 5, 2006 07:22 PM

The Retreat-in-Panic, which is euphemistically referred to as the "disengagement", was a stupid, suicidal, and self-destructive act. Its wonderful results include:

El-Kassam missiles are now falling in Ashkelon and Negev settlements, rather than "merely" Sderot;
Utter chaos reigns in Gaza city, as armed gangs vie for their piece of turf;
Palestinians in Gaza are out of work, the economy in shambles, their Jewish employers thrown out and industries razed with nothing remotely in sight to replace them;
The border between Gaza and Egypt, which Egypt was supposed to maintain, is breached, open, and arms and materiel flows freely to terrorists;
And six months after the debacle,most of the families who were uprooted from Judenrein Gaza are still homeless, jobless, and without basic services such as health and schooling.

If this is what Kadima claims to its credit, then good riddance.

What is "moral high-ground" about self-destruction? That would be about as immoral as can be, except that it also drags along the destruction of innocents on all sides.

Many Israelis supported Sharon and his party because they're just tired and are looking for a Strong Daddy to make it all better. Tired of fighting, of incessant reserve army duty. Tired of the threat of terror. Tired of struggling to make the end of the month. Tired of seeing diplomatic failure after failure, as no agreement signed by the Palestinians has ever been honored.

Far from being in retreat, the Paletinians' only reason for not committing more horror lately is because of the internal power struggle raging over the post-Arafat vacuum.

Am I one of those "crazies", who see the damn Wall as a waste of money and false security, who actually believe the Palestinians when they proclaim the Retreat-in-Panic as a victory for them, and who believes that "Fortress Israel" is nothing more than Warsaw Revisited? Who's crazy? A party who is proud of the blows it's struck against the Windmill of no-Negotiations? An emporer who stood buck-naked in the light of fear of the gentile and Arab?

Or the boy who simply asks him why he has no clothes on?

Posted by: D'n at January 5, 2006 08:00 PM

No, you are just someone who stands blindly before the oncoming tide refusing to abandon your cat.

Ariel Sharon devoted his life to the peace and freedom of Israel, and frankly 'warsaw revisited' is a vile and absolutely baseless slur on one of Israel's greatest heroes. At least you refrained from saying explicitly that he lacked courage!

There is so much wrong with your analysis, but most importantly it must be pointed out that your analogy is completely wrong. The emperor with no clothes was Arafat, and Sharon denounced him.

My greatest hope for now is that he does recover - I am certainly praying. My second is that thanks to his courageous and outstanding example, Bibi will run on a policy of essentially continuing Sharon's project. Or failing that, that he recover at least enough to publicly endorse Olmert who is then elected to continue his path.

But I truly fear that on such contentious and emotional issues there is no-one in Israel and few in the world who could replace this man.

Posted by: Patrick at January 7, 2006 02:13 AM

ps: Don't you want to amend 'abandoned'??

Posted by: Patrick at January 7, 2006 02:13 AM