Steve,
Point well-taken, but Russia isn't causing mischief simply because it can, but because it still looks in the mirror and sees a superpower.

Much like the point you made, Russia -like Stalone- still thinks it can go punch-for-punch with the big dogs.

Stephen,
The fact you can come up with such a cogent analysis within a few short days of the birth of your first speaks volumes to your dedication to your readers, and the blogosphere in general.
If Melissa understands and approves, how could your general readership not.
You're a really good man and your son will someday realize how lucky he is in who his Father is.
G-d Bless you and yours for this New Year and all subsequent New Years.
Mike

I was priviledged to be able to see former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev speak in November. One of the statements he made that made a big impression on a number of people I spoke with afterwards was that he believed that for free trade and the version of democracy that was in place to work in the former Soviet Republic, would take at least 50 years. Lots of people I spoke with were stunned by that statement, thinking that to be a not very positive thought about his people. But in my opinion, it's a reality. And Putin isn't helping that timeline, either.

I think you mean Japan's population is more homogeneous no? All minorities combined comprise not more than a percent or two of their population.

Cozy up to Beijing's butchers? Da.

This one, I understand. Suppose you:

(1) were a declining population

(2) with a large amount of open land with some of the richest natural resources in the world (Siberia)

(3) right next to a neighbor with a huge surplus population and an over-abundance of males.

Wouldn't you cozy up to them too?

Stephen,

Good analysis.
Additionally, I think Russia had a chance to get started on the right road, but blew it with Putin who was a drunken and corrupt cleptocrat as were most in his govenrment. Our government in the 90's was content to ignore this at the time.

The resulting chaos that the whole society was thrown into caused a backlash of nostalgia for a 'stronger hand' to take control.

Into the vacum steps Putin and the remnants of the Soviet/KGB/apparatchik class. Yes they're going to go back to their old ways, it's what they know and what people who are desperate for any sort of stability look fondly back at. However oppressive, it was at least stable.

Much of his actions and popularity might be explained by the fact that this type of behavior makes him look, to his people, like a 'man in charge.' It also conveniently allows Russia to ignore, however temporarily, the looming catastrophie in their muslim central Asian states and their inability to deal with the Chechen problem. Their shrinking population and increasing insignificance on the world stage. Bitter medicine indeed for the regieme that a generation ago said that they would bury us.

This type of saber rattling and in your face anti-social behavior is an old trick out of a standard playbook to distract the people from their real problems, which are complex and not easily solved and lets them rally around some nationalist sentiment where they can pretend that they're still a super power.

I think that much of his popularity stems from that. Putin was and still is an apparatchik with absolutely no vision or ideas about how to move his country forward so he tries to take them back to a better time.

The sad thing is that the end of the soviet era is considered a 'better time' and that there are so many in the west who actually agree with him and would impose this on us if they could.

The scary thing is that they still have thousands of nukes and the delivery systems to make them effective.

On another note. Gettin much sleep lately dad?

Nice read. Belmont Club talks about declining populations world wide. Russia may not be alone in this.

America - preserving Russian culture via adopting their children.

I don't follow the numbers anymore, but I wouldn't doubt at least 50K - if not about 100K here over the past 10 years.

I've got 1. We'll take her back in 2-4 years. All we can tell her really at this time is no one else lives like we (Americans) do. And then we'll take her to see it.

They've always seen themselves as that. One tourist spot is a huge cracked bell cos the czar could. No food for the people but weapons, etc. you bet. They have 1/3 of the world's minerals but can't get at them.

Got to admire the people tho. Beaten down 1st by the church, then the czars, then the commies (faces changed, mentality didn't) for 1000 years. Tough nut to crack.

--he believed that for free trade and the version of democracy that was in place to work in the former Soviet Republic, would take at least 50 years.--

Not surprised at all by this statement, was told this by a Russian at an adoptive picnic 2-3-4 years ago. Her dad's an economist.

Says something that Russia will get there before frogistan. hehehehehe

Tim - "Additionally, I think Russia had a chance to get started on the right road, but blew it with Putin who was a drunken and corrupt cleptocrat as were most in his govenrment. Our government in the 90's was content to ignore this at the time."

Presume you mean Yeltsin - Putin's a right bastard but he's got a focus like a laser.

Funny thing is, Europe just might have to rebuild the Iron Curtain to keep all the refugees out when the Mongol hordes start eating the Ruskies lunch.

An important detail to note is that Russia has evidently recently signed an agreement with Turkmenistan to buy a huge amount of gas from them. Russia, the gas exporter.

Hmmm, Ukraine gets 45% of its gas from Turkmenistan. Do you see a plan developing here? I'm writing from memory so details may be off but the basic truth is there.

BTW, no offense but I wouldn't give too much creedence to what Gorbachev has to say. IMO, his greatest accomplishment was inadvertent and the result of a series of massive miscalculations on his part.

One thing I forgot to mention. In Alabama there is a monument to the Boll Weevil. Evidently back in the day, there was a boll weevil infestation that destroyed the cotton crops to the point that Alabama was forced to industrialize, a positive step forward that was forced on them by adversity, and so they built a monument in its honor. Perhaps Ukraine and the rest of Europe will one day look back on this in the same way.

Pollyannishly yours.

I agree with bb re Gorbie.

He's the perfect Russian version of Jimmy Carter; respected despite being abjectly and continously wrong about most major issues in the world.

They seem to be in competition with Robert McNamara for being most wrongheaded "leader" of all time.

Keep in mind that Russia also cut off gas that Ukraine purchased from Turkmenistan (who is the principal supplier to Ukraine, not Russia).

Such piracy is not too far from an act of war.

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/06/C9F49CBB-CE83-494E-A475-3676AF24AE55.html

I wonder why no one mentions the actual price that Russia used to be charging Ukraine for gas up to now? It is _not_ what Europe pays... and with the biggest outgoing pipeline on its territory and under its control Ukraine can blackmail Russia to its heart's content.

You guys figured out Putin is a thug -- good. Next step: so is Yuschenko. They're ALL thugs over there.

Excellent column, excellent comments. All I can add is you better hope Putin doesn't embargo the Stoli or you might have to rename your blog.

And congrats on the little one. I remember those days fondly. I'm sure you will treasure them.

Holdfast,
Thanks. Yes I did mean Yeltsin.

China's relationship with Russia cannot be stressed enough. I'm not saying that they told Russia to cut off Ukraine's gas supply, I'm refering to Billy Hollis' point. China could transfer 1% of their population over the great wall and they'd outnumber Russian citizens in Siberia 10 - 1. It wouldn't surprise me if there were chinese illegals in Sibera.
My brother, who lived in Russia for a couple of years, told me that parts of Siberia used to belong to China, but Russia "took" them because China was in decline and wasn't doing anything with the land. This could be a case of turn-about.
Or, Russia may end up selling parts to China. They sold Alaska, and even had some forts in the lower 48 that they couldn't develop further. If China manages to 'bleed' enough expats into Siberia, look for Russia to sell the land rather than fight China for it.

Max,

Ukraine's former price of $50 per thousand cubic meters (Putin tried to up it to $230 overnight) was negotiated as a term for their allowing Russia to pump gas through their territory. If one partner in an agreement fails to live up to the terms of said agreement, the other partner is no longer bound by the same terms. For Yuschenko's part, his demand of Russia wasn't that the price hike not occur, but rather that it be phased in. For Russia's part, the main motivation for the Ukraine hike would seem to be Putin's vendetta against Yuschenko, whom he tried to kill just weeks before the Orange Revolution, as Putin really desires to regain the former Eastern Bloc as a bunch of client states (there is no talk, for instance, of raising the $47 /kM^3 that Russia-friendly and kleptocratic Belarus pays for gas).

[[ Ukraine's former price of $50 per thousand cubic meters (Putin tried to up it to $230 overnight) was negotiated as a term for their allowing Russia to pump gas through their territory ]]

Not according to what Russian officials say now. Actually, it may have been true at some point in time, however the use of the pipeline has been renegotiated since then to be paid for directly in $$. And now about 30% of the gas shipment just conveniently "disappears" in transit -- at least according to what Russian media say (and I can actually hear that without translation).

Such a convenient explanation: Russia tries to punish Ukraine out of imperial ambitions. Here's one just as good: Ukraine steals gas because it damn well can -- there's no other way of shipping all this gas to Europe, or anywhere else, and Russia can ill afford curtailing the export of one of its primary products when it has no other economy to speak of.

That part of the world is screwed up BIG TIME, and easy explanations will not do.

Let me build on the many good post so far, based on my observations living the last two years in Moscow . . .

A generation or two seems like a minimum for real democracy and free markets in Russia. The current situation is "The Empire Strikes Back" with the next-generation KGBers having reconsolidated power. They now control the courts, security apparatus, the press, the electoral process, all political appointments, and the cash flow from natural resources. All that can carry a corrupt, power-savvy regime for a long time. On the other hand . . .

There are still a lot of intelligent people in Russia, and many of them are vacationing regularly outside the country and accessing the internet. Not just the power elite, but teachers, office workers, etc. They save up $700 and take a one week all-inclusive excursion to Egypt or Turkey or India. These people were embarrassed by Yeltsin and derived no benefit from privatization of government assets. They initially welcomed the stability of Putin - but had no role in putting him in power. And yes, they voted for him, but many in the West were fawning over him at that time too. Voting for Putin was initially a reasonable proposition for the average Russian. But starting in late 2003, with the roll back of social benefits like mass transit subsidies for retirees and teachers, Putin started to acquire higher "negatives" domestically.

While many Russians are not thirsting for democracy - since they have no direct knowledge of it and its long term benefits! - one can still detect unease in conversation with how they view the direction of Russia, its government, and standard of living for the general population. They know they are not benefiting from the current oil-price windfall. They dare not start their own business, at least not in the formal economy, as there is oppressive corruption. And many have to support their parents who were left with nothing after the fall of the Soviet Union and the bank failures and currency devaluations in the 1990s.

Most Russians aspire to the same general desires that are best achieved in a democracy and a free market – a good family, enjoying the benefits of their labor, living in a stable country they can be proud of. This bodes well long term. However, as pointed out by one syndicated columnist a number of months ago (Thomas Friedman?), there was no social infrastructure in place after the fall of the Communism: no functional churches, no social trust, no legal or political system to protect the rights of the people. Only living in a place without such does one appreciate the benefit bestowed by the Founders, the U. S. Constitution, the inherited English common law, and the Judeo-Christian heritage that backs it all. Putting analogous social infrastructure in place is why democracy will take time in Russia.

In the interim, most Muscovites are just trying to survive, often below the radar screen, just like many previous generations of Russians. As one Russian said to me as the Yukos affair unfolded, a repeating Russia tragedy is always losing its best people, from the World Wars, to the persecutions and starvations of Stalin, and, she feared, to continuing emigration as people realize not a lot will change quickly.

A couple of other wrinkles in this situation. The immediate impact of reduced gas supplies are going to mainly affect the industries, most of which are situated in the East, the region most sympathetic to Russia and the Russian supported political parties.

Also, my conversations with a couple of locals indicates that this is generating very anti-Russian feelings amongst Ukrainians. The word "Empire" was mentioned more than once.

The leading opposition party depends on the pro-Russian population. If this were to finally turn them away, it could have even more unintended effects than first thought.

There's a great Russian parable about the train of Russian history. Throughout her history, the Russians were building the tracks to the future and were on the whole very optimistic about where they led. Along came Lenin, and the train stops, everybody gets out and exuberantly and optimistically build his stretch by going back and tearing up the rail they'd already covered, and rebuild it in front of the train, singing songs and working together. The train stops again and everybody gets out and cheer once, then get busy tearing up the track that Lenin had laid to build for Stalin. The train stops again and everybody quietly and somberly get out, tear up Stalin's and build Khrushev's track, trying not to talk or look around. Again the train stops and they robotically get out and tear up Khrushev's and build Gorbeshev's rail, but this time with no bread or snacks, nothing to eat but paper privatization vouchers.

At no time do any of the bosses add new steel, nobody trues up the rail or the wheels on the train, nobody scrapes off the rust or polishes out the dings, and each time they lose whole sections here and there. Now Putin comes along, and the train stops again...