As far as the democrat/MSM coalition is concerned, this is not newsworthy since it doesn't advance their agenda. Have you forgotten the NYT motto: "all the news that fits, we print."

I actually heard my favorite "Iraqi economy" story on NPR, of all places, a few months after the Saddam statue-toppling.

During the currency conversion process, the value of the average Iraqi's savings accounts was skyrocketing. So one newly-prosperous family bought a washer and dryer.

This was a big family, and the wife had previously spent several days a week doing laundry by hand.

Now, she had spare time and money...so she enrolled in university.

Too be we're, y'know, fascist warmongers and whatnot, or that story might mean something.

Ian:

You should be ashamed. That poor woman was certainly extremely happy under the peaceful Hussein administration, and is so downtrodden by the American occupation that she feels she has to get a college degree just to survive.

I'm trying to confirm those economic numbers. Can't find the IMF statement about the per capita income doubling, but it could still be true. I found the Brookings Institute Iraq index and found that the author of the article you quote is being very selective in his wording.

For example, yes, September had record oil profits... but prices were really high in that month. November profits were only 38% of those in September.

Just a friendly reminder: All sources have a bias--MSM or other. Just because you agree with one or the other doesn't mean they're right. :)

Bolo,

And on blogs, you get a chance to make your case when you think (or know!) that I got it wrong. And if it's a really good case, I'll put it on the main page in its own post.

Ain't life sweet?

"Ain't life sweet?"

It sure is! :)

Anyhow, rather than just regurgitate what's in the Brookings Institute data, here's the link:

http://www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf

Some things do look good. Electricity is no longer just concentrated in Baghdad, though I suspect that much of it is now going to the Kurds in the north. Haven't found data on the breakdown yet, so I'm just guessing.

But a lot (imo) still looks bad or just sort of... eh. Rollercoaster, up and down.

I'd recommend taking a look at the report.

Sorry for the double post:

Just found the per capita GDP data.

2002: $802
2005: $1,051

It says "2005 p," which I assume means projected, so perhaps reality is different and the IMF knows something Brookings doesn't :). While it has improved, it sure hasn't doubled.

Ok, I'll refrain from further posts until I look at the rest.

Ok, here goes:

The numbers, overall are trending toward the positive. As far as security goes: The estimated number of insurgents has leveled off and the number being captured each month is going up. However, the number of attacks and their effectiveness (body count) has been steadily rising. This is bad on the face of it, but other trends indicating more Iraqis providing tips and slightly fewer voicing support for the insurgency might mean that the increased bloodshed is turning them against the insurgents. Not a strong trend, but still detectable.

Kidnappings seem to be up, but the data points for Iraqis being kidnapped were sparse, so no solid data really. The numbers for Iraqi security force levels appeared to be growing rather well, but a few huge jumps make me suspect that the method of counting may have shifted. Plus, the author of the report assumes and estimates numbers here and there.

I would guess the reality, in terms of actual, trained Iraqi security forces is somewhere between the estimates of Sen. Biden and General Myers--say, 10,000 to 50,000, trending moderately toward Myers given that a few months have passed since those estimates were made.

The economic side has some very bright spots but also some dim or neutral ones as well. Crude oil production and export has yet to consistently surpass pre-war levels. But overall fuel supplies are reaching about 85-95% of stated goals, though these goals have shifted in various ways over the past year.

The natiowide supply of electricity has been weaving around pre-war levels recently but not significantly surpassing them for long. More power is being allocated away from Baghdad, which is a good thing considering how Saddam used to hog it all.

Per capita GDP is up a bit from prewar level (1,051 vs. 802), as is the nominal GDP. Inflation is at least back to prewar levels. Long term GDP projections all look good, though I'm a little wary of the projected 16.8% real GDP growth rate for 2006 when 2005 is only projected at 3.7%... but I'm not an economist. I'll just take the projections with a grain of salt. Unemployment has been going down, though hard numbers are difficult to find. Car traffic is up by a factor of 5, but there isn't enough gasoline in the country to handle this yet (lines for gas now average one hour). Internet and phone usage has skyrocketed, mostly due to the lifting of restrictions put in place by Sadam. I would guess that most of thost new phone lines are actually cellular.

There are a bunch of polls of the Iraqi people, so I'll summarize what I think are the salient points: They don't like us, they don't like the insurgents, but the trends are away from the insurgents and towards us. Good. The response to "Is Iraq heading in the right or wrong direction?" varies greatly depending on when it's asked, but is overall in the "right" category. Good. Trust in the Iraqi government has been declining. Bad.

There's a lot more, but I've gone on long enough. Conclusion:

I think the source you quote is cherry-picking a bit by taking the most obvious improvements (re: Iraq) and only showcasing those. There are other, lesser improvements, some backsliding, some "rollercoaster" figures, and some genuinely bad trends in security (number of attacks, lethality, etc.). These last worry me the most, since security is a precondition to any sort of long-term stability.

Also, as with all statistical reports, the context and reliability of the numbers presented is not always clear. In the case of the Brookings data, there is a fair amount of estimation, some shuffling of definitions, and some outright unreliable sources. Not a majority, but a significant number.

I'd tentatively say that things are looking up right now, but I really think they could be looking MORE up. Too many people are dying, many goals have been scaled back over time, and progress on the security front is too uneven for what we need. We'll see what the future brings, especially after Dec. 15th.

Hope you don't mind me making such a huge post in your comments. :)

Interesting, Bolo. Thanks.

I think that this is what actually frustrates me the most about reporting from Iraq, though. It's that we don't get reasoned presentation of data with the sorts of "this could mean this, or this, depending" but what *I* hear anywhere but on pro-war blogs is "all is doomed" "they hate us" "we can't win" "it's all our fault."

I don't think that the hawks, chicken or otherwise, think that the situation is anything but complicated, or ignore the down bits of the roller coaster while they point out the up bits. It would be unrealistic and too weird if all the Iraqi people whole heartedly supported their new government. That's not how viable governments work. It's riddiculous to think that the Iraqi people *like* having American troops there... even when they see the need and most would rather we stayed. That's how real life works.

Pointing out the good news may be cherry picking but it seems to me that with all the negative reporting (heard a phone call from some Bagdad news "chief" and the guy basically said it was a complete disaster, and who's to know better when *he's* the guy supposed to be telling us what is going on over there?) I can't bring myself to think that the cherry picking isn't justified.

There is far more going on over there, many more metrics to look at, than the frequency and lethality of attacks. And I like the visualization of the rollercoaster because it means accepting that a down slope has little over all meaning.

For what it's worth I met a lady last night at the gym who's husband is in Iraq right now. She doesn't worry much about his safety. Her attitude about his deployment and the attitudes of people like her mean more to me than what I hear on television.