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Breaking Up Is Hard to Do, Eh
Posted by Stephen Green  ·  28 November 2005

About 20 years ago, I read something funny about Canada.

No, really.

Granted, I was young and a political junky - two attributes which probably didn't speak well for my sense of humor. That aside, there was a line in Jim Dunnigan & Austin Bay's indispensable Quick and Dirty Guide to War that had me in stitches. Concerning the (remote) possibility of Canada fracturing into two or more nations, they joked that readers should "watch for Newfoundland to petition the United Kingdom to be taken over as a colony."

Not exactly a knee-slapper, but in a geeky way it becomes really funny when you stop and remember that the Newfies didn't become a part of Canada until after WWII, and were never all that keen about it. Remaining a Crown Colony (or becoming one again) had certain advantages. Like not having to listen to all those pushy Québécois, for starters.

So it should come as no surprise that I laughed at this item, too, if only just a little.

A corruption scandal forced a vote of no-confidence Monday that toppled Prime Minister Paul Martin's minority government, triggering an unusual election campaign during the Christmas holidays.

Canada's three opposition parties, which control a majority in Parliament, voted against Martin's government, claiming his Liberal Party no longer has the moral authority to lead the nation.

Yeah, I got a little schadenfreude thrill out of Martin's black eye, if only because he's been such a dipshit anti-American sometimes. But for fans of a Single Canada – like me – ditching Martin is probably nothin' but good news.

If there's anything with the ability to split Canada apart, it's Canada's Liberal Party. For years now, the LP has simultaneously flirted with Quebec Separatists while engaging in social and spending policies which constantly annoy everybody west of Winnipeg. If the LP keeps on this way, the Frenchies will eventually go their own way – and so might British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba (as a group). Poor little Ottawa, along with maybe the Maritime Provinces, would be all that remained of Rump Canada.

NOTE: Economically, a Canadian divorce probably wouldn't be the disaster some might think. Assuming the new governments all stayed in NAFTA, there would be little problem for the outlying Maritimes to keep their capital at Ottawa.

Whoever takes power after next year's election, they'll still have Bloc Québécois to deal with, if they want to form a majority. My read of BQ is, at this time they're more interested in aggrandizing their Frenchness than in making a new nation-state. Assuming BQ can make a deal with the two other non-LP parties, the new government will represent a wider range of interests than the old LP-BQ chum-fest.

Wither Canada? Not today. Au contraire - our northern neighbor might just have signed a new lease on life.

Comments

Mark Steyn wrote an article and had this tidbit:

CW at that time said the 18th century belonged to the Americans but the 19th would belong to the Canucks and they would basically dominate North America.

Still waiting.

I still think we should make Alberta an offer it can't refuse.

What have the froggies to offer other than some great bits by Triumph the Insult Comic Dog?

They are leeches everywhere they were/are.

Posted by: Sandy P at November 28, 2005 11:02 PM

Could Canada become this hemisphere's Yugoslavia?

Jeez. I remember articles in Life magazine in the early 1960's showing police officers trying to defuse a separatist bomb in a mailbox in Quebec. The sequence showed before, and after the thing exploded, leaving the officers with fingers blown off and multiple wounds.

Forty years later, and the idiots in Quebec are so irrational about their defiance they're letting ARAB terrorists make Montreal a playground, just so the Francophiles can thumb their noses at Ottowa's immigration rules.

I wonder how the Montreal press has been reporting the riots in France.

Posted by: David March at November 29, 2005 02:04 AM

The QB is more about posturing these days, than separatism.

I believe most French-Canadians understand that independance would turn them into third-world country in a heartbeat.

Just as Democrats wail about heartless corporate conservatives, and the Republicans view with alarm liberal anti-militarism, the QB uses separation as a convenient stick to beat on the central government.

Posted by: Casey Tompkins at November 29, 2005 06:33 AM

Stephen Green wrote: "there would be little problem for the outlying Maritimes to keep their capital at Ottawa."

You mean like the problems outlying Alaska and Hawaii have with their capital in Washington?

Posted by: Michel at November 29, 2005 06:38 AM

Agree. One Canada. Otherwise it would become balkanized into a dozen squabbling little states. The same would have happened in the US if we had a Jimmy Carter instead of an Abe Lincoln back then.

Posted by: Calvin Weissenfluh at November 29, 2005 07:43 AM

I still think we should make Alberta an offer it can't refuse.

How about a swap. California for Alberta? Throw in Saskatchewan, and the Canadians can have their pick of Massachusetts, New York, or Vermont.

Posted by: V the K at November 29, 2005 08:01 AM

Opinions from a Montrealer:

Despite the noise, separation is slowly going down as an option as the '60s radicals drop dead. The younger people (16-20) tend to favor independance, until they get out of school, start paying taxes, and realise what a PITA it would be. Even the new Parti Quebecois leader, Andre Boisclair, is not using it as a central theme.

Our main problem right now is that we have two societies living side by side. One (East) is big on socialism and cronism. The other (West) is conservative (small "c") and would prefer less government intervention, mostly because said goverment is generally controlled by Easterners, for the latter's benefit. Until we can get everyone to agree on at least some kind of compromise, we'll have frictions.

My personal hope is that at some point we'll go back to a true Confederation, with each province making its own rules and the central government taking care of foreign policy only. I really don't see why technocrats in Ottawa should have any say on how schools are run in small villages in BC or Quebec. Don't get me started on the idiocy of sending money to the feds, then having them mail us a check back.

Alas, from the four national parties, three (LP, BQ, NDP) are strong centralists, and even the PC would just maintain the status quo. I really don't know how we can get a small-government-minded government -- too many people profit outright from the huge structures we have right now.

Posted by: V-Man at November 29, 2005 08:15 AM

I wonder how the Montreal press has been reporting the riots in France.

Actually, the French riots made the front page of the Journal de Montreal and La Presse for several days. They even used the "M" word a couple of time, though the root cause was always identified as poverty and French racism.

Posted by: V-Man at November 29, 2005 08:37 AM

Much speculation during the Reed Lake years centered on what would actually happen if Canada would split apart. Likely scenarios would see the western provinces allay more closely with the US (primarily for economic reasons), and ad hoc alliances formed with the remainders.

The US wouldn't be interested in the other provinces, primarily because of their debt obligations and lack of local industries. But since I'm a damn Yankee, I could of course be way off here.

Posted by: Dmac at November 29, 2005 09:36 AM

The western provinces and the Yukon should come on over making Alaska contiguous to the rest of the U.S.

Posted by: tefta at November 29, 2005 10:40 AM

I've seen projections from the last time Canade nearly fractured;

a. British Columbia and possibly Alberta and the Yukon in the West, and the Martimes in the East petition for statehood or federation. Their shares of the Canadian military absorbed into the US military and as state Guards units.

b. Quebec goes it's own way from English-Canada, but maintains close commercial-ties with the Northeastern States. Their-share of the Canadian military pulls out of NATO, but maintains the alliance with the US and guarentees the St. Lawrence Sea-way and River.

c. Rump-Canada soldiers-on with Ontario, the grain-provinces of Sasketwan and Manitoba and the Artic territories, with increasing commercial barriers against the US...including the US-owned auto factories in Ontario. Rump-Canada's remaining navy is down-graded to a Coast Guard-scaled force in the Artic and Great Lakes, with token support for NATO naval oceanic ops. Their Army/Air Force concentrates on disaster relief amd peacekeeping ops.

Sounds like win/win.

Posted by: Ted B. at November 29, 2005 11:25 AM

In other words, pretty much what they've got now without admitting it.

Posted by: richard mcenroe at November 30, 2005 08:53 AM

As a western Canadian I don't understand why anyone thinks that we would want to join the U.S., if we where to separate from Canada. Alberta is a debt free province why would we shackle ourselves to a floundering debt ridden country that is fracturing at the seems? There is very little in the way of advantages if we joined the U.S we would in fact be facing the same types of problems that we have now only in a less important role than we have now.

Posted by: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada at November 30, 2005 09:55 AM



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