VodkapunditVodkapunditVodkapundit
Coming Soon: iFlicks
Posted by Will Collier  ·   5 October 2005

Apple Computer will announce a new product and/or service next week. As per their usual methods, the company isn't giving many hints as to what that's going to be, but here's what I'm expecting.

Most observers are predicting a "video iPod" that will play back video on a hand-sized device. Not me. I'm predicting not a video iPod, but rather an "iFlicks" service (they may or may not use that name) enabled by a new Airport-Express-on-steroids wireless widget with a video out, as well as a snazzy Apple remote control (perhaps looking something like this) for iTunes and iFlicks.

All this will enable Mac G5 owners to download high-resolution (but not HD, not yet) movies from Apple to their hard drives and play them back on televisions in another part of the house. G4 Macs won't have enough horsepower, this is intended partially to drive G5 iMac sales (so there goes the Mac Mini as an HDPC theory, at least for now), but mostly to establish Apple as the primary source for legal movie downloads.

In other words, Apple makes a bid to become the Blockbuster and Netflix combined of the 21st Century, without the inventory, bricks-and-mortar overhead, or shipping hassles.

This isn't an original prediction on my part, and I don't have any inside info (full disclosure: I worked for Apple briefly way back in 1993). Tech pundit Bob Cringely and "As Seen On TV" (an either knowlegable or very gifted fake of a Slashdot poster who suddenly vanished a little while back) have been predicting this for months. I think they're right.

For what it's worth, I emailed Cringely this morning, and he agrees. We'll see on the 12th.

Comments

Try http://www.apple.com/movies ... you get a 403, not a 404.

Telling, I would think.

(Lileks noticed this; I can't take credit for it.)

Posted by: Brian Tiemann at October 5, 2005 10:36 AM

So?

Movies are becoming just like TV/cable/sat - 96 channels and nothing worth watching.

Read a book.

Posted by: Whitehall at October 5, 2005 10:51 AM

Why wouldn't a modern G4 have enough horsepower to pump out DVD-quality output (which is what I assume is meant by "high res but not HD")?

I'm not actually quite sure what you're suggesting the product would be, on reflection. To show video on a TV, you'd still need some sort of set-top box; that'd be new hardware anyway, and probably be a G4, maybe with an MPEG decoder chip. That seems to make a lot more sense than having the central machine decode and stream raw video, which seems to be what you're implying.

(Or did you mean the airport-like device would take a raw stream and output SVideo? That would be... interesting. And kinda weird. But I still think a modern G4 could push enough data to feed that at DVD resolutions. I'm thinking the bottleneck would be the wireless, not the CPU.)

Posted by: Sigivald at October 5, 2005 11:39 AM

Here's what I think.

MPEG-4 (actually H.264) files are downloaded to a computer. They're then streamed wirelessly to the Airport Express widget, which has an S-video and/or HDMI output, and from there connected to the TV.

Whether the MPEG decoding is done by the computer or at the Airport widget, I don't know (on further reflection, it'd make more sense to just build an H.264 encoder into the widget instead of using the computer CPU, so maybe even a G3 could handle the streaming load), but the "set-top" box (the current Airport Express is tiny, same size as an iBook power supply) would be a very minimal unit, just enough to accept the wireless stream and get the video to the TV set.

All the archiving and downloading would be handled at the computer, which actually wouldn't even need to be a Mac, especially if you decode the MPEGs at the Airport box.

I suspect they aren't ready for HD yet due to (a) file sizes, (b) wireless bandwidth (you're quite right about the bottleneck there) and (c) processor power required for decoding. They could probably do "half-definition," which looks pretty darn good, about as good or better than a DVD. That'll be along in the future, though. I suspect HD is the fundamental reason behind Apple's switch to Intel processors.

Posted by: Will Collier at October 5, 2005 11:52 AM

Note that H.264 at HD resolutions is what requires a G5; only if they're planning to deliver content like that will this qualify as a G5-pumping stunt. Otherwise even a G3 works fine.

Posted by: Brian Tiemann at October 5, 2005 11:55 AM

maybe it'll be a motor-scooter that's impossible to tip over that costs $5000

Posted by: nate at October 5, 2005 12:27 PM

And gets 1,000 mpg ;) -Spin

Posted by: SpinDaddy at October 5, 2005 12:58 PM

Aren't y'all forgetting the switch to Intel processors next summer, which will extend to the entire Mac line by 2007?

Seems kinda silly to base a new service on a soon-to-be-discontinued technology...

Posted by: Casey Tompkins at October 5, 2005 01:22 PM

There's no reason to think a new video service wouldn't run on the Intel chips as well as G4/5s. Quicktime is fairly platform-independent as it is.

Posted by: Will Collier at October 5, 2005 02:02 PM

TO: WIll Collier
RE: By 5

Well...

...for this Apple Evangalist, there's not going to be any hardware purchases until the dust of the move to Intell processers has settled.

Regards,

Chuck(le)

Posted by: Chuck Pelto at October 5, 2005 02:50 PM

Most observers are predicting a "video iPod" that will play back video on a hand-sized device.

Wanna see something neat? Grab an .mpg, and drop it in the iTunes window while you have the Library selected (not a playlist).

Interesting.

Posted by: rosignol at October 5, 2005 09:47 PM

Will: fair enough. I thought you and Stephen were basing your comments on a G5-specific approach, which is not unreasonable, considering the vector-based features unique to the G5, which allow that chip to occasionally cream the best of the Intel crop, depending on the application.

Hmm... One wonders if an Intel/IBM agreement would be possible, wherein Intel might acquire the aforementioned vector-based technology... Heh...

My philosophy is to offload non-critical tasks to dedicated processors. Hence I prefer to dump all graphics calls to a dedicated video GPU, storage calls to a high-performance hard drive, and so on.

But then, these days, even a 1Gz PentiumIII processor with a 133Mz FSB can kick ass, as long as the motherboard has a 4x AGP slot and a n ATA-100 bus available...

Ok. Kick relative ass, as compared to an Intel Pentium D or Extreme cpu, or an AMD 64 cpu.

Or a dual G5... :)

Posted by: Casey Tompkins at October 5, 2005 11:39 PM

Hmm. "Universal expects to be able to offer movies online by the end of the year or early next year, company chairman and CEO Bob Wright said Tuesday."

Posted by: dorkafork at October 6, 2005 12:27 AM

Hm. The MacWorld San Francisco tradeshow is in early January... it has traditionally been one of the events where Apple rolls out new products, and since nothing significant happened at Macworld Paris, I'm inclined to think something big is on the schedule for MWSF.... but it's more likely to be hardware than being able to buy movies via iTunes.

Posted by: rosignol at October 6, 2005 02:50 AM

One doesn't need G5 horsepower to decode H.264, not by a long shot, nor even HD-bitrate mpeg4 or mpeg2.

Aside from the fact that Apple would have to be absolutely retarded not to go with a chip based decoder for such an animal, you just don't need huge amounts of processing power to manage 6-8mbit of video, which is what 264 runs HD at.

The real magic will be in the transport, and making it robust enough to minimize data stream interruptions. Nobody wants the movie to stop when they nuke a bag of popcorn, and I'm not entirely certain 802.11g is up to the task.

So, if they do it, expect a new (probably 100mbit) airport standard.

Posted by: Mr. Lion at October 6, 2005 08:38 AM

Casey: AltiVec (the vector instruction set) was not a G5 innovation. It was on every G4 chip Motorola made, which is why they blew Intel away back in the P2/P3 (and even early P4) days when it came to vector processing tasks.

Hence, the (in)famous Photoshop benchmarks.

Posted by: Mr. Lion at October 6, 2005 08:41 AM

Netflix also has long-term plans to offer movie downloads over the net. As their CEO said earlier this year, paraphrasing, their name is "Netflix," not "DVDs by Mail."

Posted by: andy at October 6, 2005 09:51 AM

Regarding using Wireless Ethernet to transfer video.

802.11g is in theory fast enough already to HD resolution but as mentioned above could in many circumstances be adversely affected (e.g. Microwave oven being turned on, someone download latest XP security update, etc.).

However there is a new forthcoming standard called 802.11n which can offer nearly double the speed of 802.11g (i.e. 108Mbps vs 55Mbps). There is already equipment on the market (called 'Pre-N') which uses this same approach (but will be incompatible with the official standard when it finally ships).

Therefore one possibility is that Apple ships either Pre-N based equipment or maybe they become the first company to ship official 802.11n equipment.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/03/07/review_belkin_pre-n/

Posted by: John Lockwood at October 7, 2005 06:19 AM



Navigation

MDS - Give Until It Hurts

Terror War Scorecard
Watching America

50 Things
American Cancer Ablation Center
Buy VodkaPundit Stuff



VodkaPundit on Amazon
Vodkapundit for PDA (AvantGo)
Vodkapundit for PDA (Not)
VodkaPundit XML or RDF

Search



Advanced Search



Last Call

The Author

"I'm Chris Muir, and I approved this blog."
-Chris Muir

Absolut Link

Blog-Iran

Top Shelf

Ann Althouse
Baldilocks
Austin Bay
Belmont Club
Tim Blair
Chequer Board
Command Post
Counterterrorism Blog
Day By Day
Daniel Drezner
From the Bleachers
Hit & Run
INDC Journal
Iraq the Model
James Joyner
James Lileks
Megan McArdle
OPFOR
Protein Wisdom
Glenn Reynolds
Bill Roggio
ScreedBlog
Roger L. Simon
Rob Smith
Steven Taylor
Venomous Kate
Matt Welch
Winds of Change
Michael Yon
Yuppies of Zion


The Usual

Across the Atlantic
Anticipatory Retaliation
Atlas Shrugs
The Black Republican
Blogcritics
Captain's Quarters
Phil Carter
The Daily Ablution
Andrew Ian Dodge
Eye on the Left
Mike Hendrix
In From the Cold
Charles Johnson
Kathy Kinsley
A Likely Story
Brian Linse
Jay Manifold
Neocon News
Frank Martin
QandO
Bill Quick
Rantburg
John Scalzi
Sine Qua Non Pundit
Team Stryker
Mac Thomason
Michael Totten
Jesse Walker
Dr. Weevil
Bill Whittle
Chief Wiggles
Sissy Willis
Cathy Young

Micro Brews

American Realpolitik
Black Five
Boots and Sabers
Capitalist Lion
Scott Chaffin
John Cole
Coming Anarchy
Bo Cowgill
Dr. Frank's Blogs of War
Donklephant
Ed Driscoll
Kim du Toit
Glenn Frazier
Joe Gandleman
The Gay Patriot
Godless Capitalist
Bill Hobbs
John Hudock
Frank J.'s IMAO
Joanne Jacobs
Brothers Judd
Junk Yard Blog
Major John
Davids Medienkritik
Mr. Misha's Rottweiler
Only Baseball Matters
Matt Moore
Jack O'Toole
Peaktalk
Eric S. Raymond
Red Sugar
Resurrection Song
Robin Roberts
Andrea See
Mathew Sheren
Spoons Experience
DC Thornton
Yankee Station

Gin & Tonic

Albion's Seedlings
American Digest
Radley Balko
Paul Berger
Robert Bidinotto
Blogometer
BusinessPundit
The Chicago Boyz
Classical Values
Conrad the Expat
Susanna Cornett
Dave Cullen
England's Sword
Dean Esmay
Horsefeathers
Jessica's Well
Alex Knapp
Legal Spin
Light of Reason
The Lipstick Republican
Moxie
OxBlog
Suman Palit
Punch the Bag
The Pursuit of Happiness
Samizdata
Sofia Sideshow
Natalie Solent
Texas Best Grok
Professor Michael Tinkler
Cal Ulmann
Brothers Volokh

Cosmopolitans

Justene Adamec
Stephen Bainbridge
La Shawn Barber
Moira Breen
Sasha Castel
Colorado Psycho
Clayton Cramer
CrossingWallStreet
Martin Devon
Kevin Drum
Henry Hanks
Diana Hsieh
Jeff Jarvis
Jessica
Sean Kirby
Liberty Belles
Rachel Lucas
Jeralyn Merritt
Philip Murphy
Oasis of Sanity
Andrew Olmsted
Walter Olson
Michael Parker
Popped Culture
Porphyrogenitus
Fritz Schrank
Donald Sensing
Elizabeth Spiers
The Swanky Conservative
Two Blowhards
Michael Ubaldi
Alexandra von Maltzan
Will Wilkinson

Rum & Coke

The Argument Clinic
Below the Beltway
The Bitch Girls
Jay Caruso
Dog's Life
Fire On The Mountain
GeckoBlue
GZ Expat
David Hogberg
John Hawkins
Horologium
Kris Lofgren
Floyd McWilliams
John Moore
PhotoDude
Robyn Pollman
Chas Rich
Silflay Hraka
Geitner Simmons
Skippy
Dave Tepper
Transterrestrial Musings
Trying to Grok
Walter in Denver
Don Watkins
Weekend Pundit
Joshua Zader

Tequila Shots

Todd A
N.Z. Bear
Begging to Differ
David MSC
Gary Farber
Highered Intelligence
Isntapundit
Jonathan and Wanda
Ken Layne
Nick Marsala
Dan Michalski
Sheila O'Malley
Dawn Olsen
Tony Pierce
Raving Atheist
Matt Traylor
Sekimori
WMET Blog
World Wide Rant

Manischewitz

Moe Freedman
Tal G. in Jerusalem
IsraPundit
Kesher Talk
Mike Silverman
Allison Kaplan Sommer
Meryl Yourish

Boozehounds

Allah Is In the House
Dave Barry's Blog
The Daily Sedative
Doug Dever
Daniel Frank
Scott Ott
Large American Penis
Short Strange Trip
Ten Fingers, Six Strings
Jim Treacher

Cyanide-Laced Kool-Aid

Laurence Simon

Sex on the Beach

Body in Mind
ErosBlog
Eroticalee
Just One Bite
Fred Lapides
New York Hotties
SLA
Unablogger

Kegger

Ben Domenech
HokiePundit
Hoosier Review
John Tabin
Nicholas West

Fosters

Duck Season
Mike Jericho
John Ray
Bernard Slattery
Whacking Day

Molson

Banana Counting Monkey
Daimnation!
Dispatches
David Janes
Western Standard

Left Wing Bar Nuts

Ted Barlow
Joshua Marshall
Dan Perkins

Cover Charge

Eric Alterman
Dave Barry
Barone Blog
Austin Bay
Jay Bryant
C-Log
Campaign Desk
Steve Chapman
Dallas News Blog
Matt Drudge
Google News
Nat Henthoff
Hugh Hewitt
Mickey Kaus
Howard Kurtz
National Review Online
The New Republic
The New York Times
Newsweek
OpinionJournal
Kathleen Parker
Daniel Pipes
Virginia Postrel
Roll Call
Larry Sabato
Linda Seebach
Slate
Sploid
Mark Steyn
StrategyPage
Andrew Sullivan
Tapped
Tech Central Station
Time
US News & World Report
David Warren
The Washington Post

Under the Table

American Times
Angry Left
Asparagirl
BitchPundit
John Braue
Shiloh Bucher
Carthaginian Peace
Lorenzo Cortes
Steven Den Beste
Fevered Rants
Scott "Funkadelic" Ganz
Juan Gato
Happy Fun Pundit
Andrea Harris
Scott Koenig
Brink Lindsey
Sue Lizano
Kieran Lyons
Mean Mr. Mustard
Meeshness
Punditwatch
Dennis Rogers
Jim Ryan
Spinsanity
Unremitting Verse
Norah Vincent
Tony Woodlief

Archives

Powered by Movable TypeDesign by Sekimori