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Category Five
Posted by Will Collier · 28 August 2005
The top winds in Hurricane Katrina are up to 175 miles an hour, the third-highest hurricane wind speed ever recorded. What's worse, the storm is bearing down on arguably the most vulnerable spot in the continental United States, New Orleans. The New Orleans Times-Picayune published a long series a few years back about what might happen if the city were hit by a major storm. Their analysis wasn't pretty, and it should scare the hell out of anybody in the area (or anybody anywhere): Georges, a Category 2 storm that only grazed New Orleans, had pushed waves to within a foot of the top of the levees. A stronger storm on a slightly different course -- such as the path Georges was on just 16 hours before landfall -- could have realized emergency officials' worst-case scenario: hundreds of billions of gallons of lake water pouring over the levees into an area averaging 5 feet below sea level with no natural means of drainage. An old boss of mine was a kid growing up in Jefferson Parish during Betsy (1965), when the local government broke the levee to save downtown New Orleans--flooding Jefferson Parish and tens of thousands of homes. He and his family had to be rescued from the roof of their house. This one could easily be much worse. If you're in the area, get out, and do it now. This is not just another hurricane that might turn away and hit Galveston or Mobile instead. You can't afford to take that chance this time. For everybody else, get ready to help. I don't mean to be a harbinger of doom here, and I'm certainly hoping that Katrina fizzles out, a la Dennis, but there's a very real possibility that this could be our tsunami. UPDATE: Here's the latest damage prediction from the National Weather Service. It's very grim reading. DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED Comments
Of course, Americans will pitch in to help as soon as we know what and where its needed. Just get the people safe, damage can be repaired and/or rebuilt. I hope Louisianna gov. Blanco does as good a job as Jeb did here in Florida last year. Posted by: erp at August 28, 2005 09:27 AMThis will be an interesting story to watch unfold on TV. I'm thankful not to live within the storm's path. I hope that the damage isn't as severe as expected. Posted by: Jessica at August 28, 2005 09:58 AMOne huge problem is that "getting out" only works to a certain point. Most gas stations in southern Louisiana are apparently out of fuel (or closed since the attendants have left). If you have a car but not a full tank of gas, all you can do is evacuate right into the path of 175 MPH winds. For the folks with no cars or transport, they've gotta stick. The guy who has been doing the simulations of this situation is on Fox right now, and he's saying there could be 30 to 35 feet of water in some parts of Nawlins... he only simluated a Cat 3 for the "worst case" that people have been discussing. The *only* thing that could save the city would be a noticeable shift to one side. Posted by: cirby at August 28, 2005 10:12 AMIf it's seriously damaged - New Orleans is big and "destroyed" seems unlikely - do you think we'll be stupid enough to rebuild it or will we be smart and realize that a coastal city lying below sea level is a really stupid thing and just abandon it? (and where would everyone go?) Another question: How long before Pat Robertson claims its God's wrath for all the hedonism in the French Quarter? Posted by: mrsizer at August 28, 2005 10:28 AMKatrina will probably cancel Cotillion as well. Beth is hosting as well this week and is in the path of this storm. Anyway, it was nice meeting you last week at the Blogger Bash, forgot to tell you that. Posted by: Stacy at August 28, 2005 11:07 AMSorry, I swear IE is messing up my html codes. Can't use Firefox because of my ISP. Posted by: Stacy at August 28, 2005 11:08 AMHeres a scary thought. Port Fourcheon and the L.O.O.P. getting smashed by a Cat 5 Posted by: Chris Byrne at August 28, 2005 11:26 AMChris: At least 25% of the oil platforms in the Gulf are going bye-bye (they're old, and weren't designed for 175 MPH winds and 35 foot sea states anyway). Even the newer production platforms are expecting a ten to twenty percent loss rate. One way to think of it: New Orleans is being hit by an F3 tornado that's 30 to 50 miles wide.
"Of course, Americans will pitch in to help as soon as we know what and where its needed." Absolutely not. Didn't we just make this mistake in Indonesia? Much better to wait for the UN and proceeded in an orderly and coordinated multilateral fashion. Posted by: richard mcenroe at August 28, 2005 12:59 PMWe live in Houston, and have been nervously watching this storm all week. Close friends from Baton Rouge are stuck in traffic right now on their way here, trying to escape with their young son. They have been told they could be without power for weeks, and they are further inland than NOLA. If you don't live on the Gulf Coast, or the lower Atlantic Coast, you can't imagine how stressful hurricane season is. All we can do right now is pray that everyone is getting out. This is going to bring unimaginable devastation to NOLA, and to a huge swath of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and beyond. Does everyone remember the images from Florida after Andrew hit? I am fearful that this one is going to make Andrew look small, because Andrew hit in a less populated area. Let's hope that this serves as a HUGE wakeup call for other costal cities, because right now Galveston and Houston are ill-prepared to handle a Cat 5 storm. Posted by: TexasSecurityMom at August 28, 2005 01:36 PMLOL Richard! The UN...helping the US...ROTFL Seriously, though, I do hope everyone can evacuate to safety in time. Where ever it lands, a Cat. 5 will be devastating. Posted by: FL Mom at August 28, 2005 01:36 PMHeh ... want to bet that the Islamist types will be saying something about "Allah's wrath"? Though we probably won't see Palestinian street parties this time, at least ... Steve Posted by: Steve at August 28, 2005 03:46 PMWe're under alert here in North Alabama for the inland aftermath due to hit early Tuesday. I'm counting the minutes until some politician compares Katrina to 9/11. Posted by: sulizano at August 28, 2005 04:45 PMI was just watching Fox a short while ago and they are reporting on a bunch of die hards partying it up in the French Quarter. So much for "mandatory evacuation." I hope their surviving relatives don't decide to sue the authorities for not warning them enough. At least the gene pool will be improved........ Posted by: Jonathan at August 28, 2005 05:16 PMTell me again: why did we think it was a good idea to build a city below sea level? Posted by: Loup Garou at August 28, 2005 05:51 PMI used to live in Kenner, out next to New Orleans' airport (work at the airport in fact) The runway is the highest thing in the area other than Monkey Hill and the Levees. I recall the main runway is 15 feet above sea level. Worse case the water will be "only" 10 or so feet deep. My aunt likes to say "It never flooded here so I aint worried". I'd explain that threr were few houses and far less concrete back then. Forget the storm surge. It will flood if enough rain hits. Add 28 feet of storm surge and Bill Cosby comes to mind: [as Noah to his neighbor]-"How Long Can You Tread Water?" Posted by: JP at August 28, 2005 05:57 PMOur thoughts and prayers to all in the path of Hurricane Katrina Posted by: gh at August 28, 2005 06:14 PMLoup Garou... that's where the harbors are. Posted by: richard mcenroe at August 28, 2005 06:26 PMSteve — I think Fred Phelps has dibs on this one... Posted by: richard mcenroe at August 28, 2005 06:27 PMJeeez,structural wise it could be as bad as Hiroshima.I'm praying that it might peter out a bit. Posted by: wetzel36 at August 28, 2005 06:30 PM"Mandatory evacuation" (in Daytona Beach, FL, anyway) simply means that a police officer bangs on your door and tells you to leave. If you want to stay, you have to give the officer the name(s) of your next of kin, and then you're basically cut off, and the authorities are no longer responsible for anything foolish that you may do. Katrina is indeed a monster on all the satellite imagery. If only there was an area of cold water or a pocket of dry air...anything to slow her momentum. It's gonna be a long, terrible night. Posted by: FL Mom at August 28, 2005 07:06 PMI think it was the French who originally built New Orleans. 'Nuff said! Posted by: Texican at August 28, 2005 07:27 PMMy Family is in Mccomb, Ms, 100 miles north of New Orleans. They have predicted winds of 100 miles an hour. If that turns out to be true, the devastation will reach far beyond New Orleans. I'm afraid for my mother's creaky old home right now. Posted by: bb at August 28, 2005 10:20 PMActually, Texican it was the Spanish who first settled it but then ceded it to the French (I forget which war). That's why the architecture in the "French Quarter" is Spanish and why "Bourbon Street" was originally called "Calle Borbon" as the sign there will tell you. Posted by: jmchez at August 28, 2005 11:40 PMWhen I first read this post a few days ago it was the first I'd seen anybody predicting anything remotely this bad. I'm sure you'd be really glad to have been dead wrong, but this post sure looks prescient right now. Hopefully you scared at least a few fencesitters into leaving town. Posted by: chaika at September 1, 2005 09:16 PMjmchez, Remember also that the name "Borbon" comes from the French "Bourbon", since Phillip of Bourbon inherited the Spanish Crown after the death of Charles V of Germany and I of Spain, and after "solving" the inheritance dispute during the War of Spanish Succession. The current Spanish royal family carries the name "Borbon", but never forget that their ancestors were originally French. Posted by: newton at September 2, 2005 02:23 AM |
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