I think your analysis is dead on. And it begs the question, what is Bolton doing cozying up to the Chinese at the expense of the Germans when it comes to Security Council reform?

And I am just amazed that you even mentioned the Spratly Islands. Well done.

Don't think of the exercises as a threat, think of them as an opportunity. Just think what we'll be able to learn about their capabilities, their doctrines, the communcations, etc.

I expect the NSA is drooling about the opportunities coming their way. :-)

They're also probably going to compare the US tech they've stolen.

China is looking to assert itself as a regional power. They have been building up their naval forces. They now have a few ships with AEGIS type capability. It will be interesting if our satellites can pick up any information on China's amphibious capabilities during these excercises.

Consider the number of friendly fire incidents that happen when the US and her allies hit the field, and consider that our technology goes a long way towards ameliorating such incidents. I think that what this joint exercise means is that Chinese and Russians are going to end up killing each other.

Pity.

I think you're underplaying the Norks here, while the US having a headache makes big smiles, the ability to apply the mother of all excedrine pills to the problem doesn't cause smiles. Consider this scenario, norks have sold terrorists a nuke, russian or china finds out, this is mentioned to the US, but nobody can find it. At this point its clear that once America gets nuked there will be unstopable movement on the NK problem. I think its in C&R's best interests to jump the gun and do in the norks on their own terms than let us do it. (and if they've practiced this, less chance of major screw ups in the execution of such a strategy).

Joint manuevers are not joit-operations. If this is a confidence-building exercise on the part of both sides, then it might actually help stabilize the Sino-Russian borderlands. Having some insight into the opositions capabilities and I-triple-C might allow for better understanding and prevent miunderstanding about intentions.

Its obvious to all that China is building itself up for a future confrontation with the US. The people of China are a smart , hard working , proud , ambitious and patriotic - determined in their quest to make China the world's numer uno superpower. Their enemy - the US of A.

How does the US counter this ? Obvious answer - build up India as a counter-balance to China. Help reduce the gap between India and China by transfer of technology , both military and civil to India.Recognise India as a nuclear power.

Create a massive headache for China. Make China worry about a threat from a crazy country of 1.1 billion armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons , ICBMs and a decent navy , apart from being an able competitor in low cost manufacturing stakes.

Indians are different from the Chinese because Indians ..majority of who have grown up in the post-socialist/cold-war era...love USA.Also Indians are happy playing second fiddle to the US and have nothing but hatred for the Chinese because of an old festering wound...(the 1962 India vs China war when China whipped India real bad)...

So this is the way it works. US takes full advantage of India and India takes full advantage of US ...to serve a common goal. Clipping the wings of the Chinese dragon.

By the way , Mr. V. Pundit - your blog rocks :))

I agree completely with your overall point -- this is about preparing to fight the United States. I don't think that either party necessarily thinks that is going to happen, but each party wants to have the option of doing so, and if possible doing so jointly rather than alone. The one detail I'd add is that joint exercises are also opportunities to learn from each other. The best minds in both militaries have spent decades thinking about how to fight America. Both have probably come up with different ideas of how to do it. This is a way for them to share ideas on how to beat Uncle Sam. Both sides benefit from that, even if one of them has to confront us alone.

I think you're overlooking something: the 'stans. The former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan are all Islamic, and have brutal, corrupt and incompetent governments. Young men from those countries have been popping up as terrorists all over the world in the last few years, and Russia and China both have restive Islamic populations inside their borders which they would rather not have "supported" by outsiders in that way. (Chechnya, anyone?)

I suspect the point of this exercise is to send a message to the leaders of the 'stans: don't get too far out of line, or Russia comes in from the north and China comes in from the south.

It's also interesting to note that Mongolia has been playing really nice with the US lately; they even sent troops to Iraq.

Steven,

I didn't leave out the 'stans - post-Soviet Central Asia is the 'stans.

You may be right about those five new nations being the ultimate target or a Russo-Chinese Entente - but I doubt it.

A joint maneuver in, say Chinese Turkestan would drive the point home better, no? Instead, they chose to demonstrate their proto-alliance in the corner where China, Russia, and Korea all meet.

Which, not so coincidentally, is just across the water from Japan.

By the way, Spudskie, the Chinese don't have anything remotely like the American Aegis cruisers/destroyers.

What you may be thinking of is that Taiwan is attempting to purchase several Arleigh Burke class destroyers from the US.

Steve, they had to do their exercise where they did it for practical reasons. Anywhere else it would be too damned difficult to ship in the units for the exercise.

Steven,

I'm still not convinced.

Part of a demostration like this own is showing the ability to do what you intend. If China and Russia really want to send a message to the 'stans, they'll first have to show that they have the ability, not just to work together, but to work in such a remote region.

On your side of the deiscussion, however, next week's event don't rule out future trials around, say, Lop Nor.

SDB, there was an article last week (posted on Rantburg, I think) indicating that the Chinese are about to launch a ship with Aegis-like capabilities stolen from the US.

[...]

I suspect the point of this exercise is to send a message to the leaders of the 'stans: don't get too far out of line, or Russia comes in from the north and China comes in from the south.

Sure, but there are reasons they might want to send the same message to North Korea. From both the Russian and Chinese pov, if the choice is between them cleaning the place up, and having the US do it (and in the process coming across detailed intel on their relationship with NK...), I suspect they consider doing it themselves is the less-bad option.

It's also interesting to note that Mongolia has been playing really nice with the US lately; they even sent troops to Iraq.

Mongolia is, um, 'geographically unfortunate'. From their POV, being friends with the US makes a lot of sense.

Or put in a 8 simple words:

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend."

Methinks there's much here related to our warming relations with India. See WindsofChange.net June 30 article on The Alliance: U.S. & India Sign Major 10-Year Defense Pact.

"Experts hold China’s recent advances in the sensitive Taiwan Strait military force is also the result of Chinese espionage against United States. It includes the new cruise missile system that mimics the American Tomahawk cruise missile and the coast defense system that was developed by stealing the blue print of the American Aegis weapons systems"

http://www.theepochtimes.com/news/5-7-5/30077.html

Steve,
The joint maneuvers have been scheduled for some time. The reasons for holding them are many. I think you and your readers have pointed out many/most of them. I personally think the reasons are as complex as the two nations themselves. However, the time since the first Gulf War has changed the world so much that those two nations are not what we remember them to be from our history lessons. The Russians are constantly on guard for actions being taken by terrorists from the stans as your readers refer to them. The Chinese are aware of the possibility of the same terrorist actions being taken in some of their more far flung provinces. The two nations share a very long border. It is extremely expensive to maintain large static armies guarding long borders situated in some of the most remote geography on earth. Cooperative efforts aimed at reducing tension and bringing about stability in the region is a win win situation for both countries. Mr. Putin was raised in the old KGB, he was a Judo champion. He is a smart man. He knows a conflict of any scale, for any reason with the Chinese would be devastating to Russia. There is much to gain in the area for both countries to have dialogue, to be able to negotiate, to step back from the border an inch or two. I think both countries are aware of the world situation. The price of oil, terrorist extremism, fragile economies, emerging markets, unemployment, population control, all lead to good reasons to learn to cooperate. India, Mongolia, Pakistan all figure into this mix in many ways. i don't think this is one issue you can point to and say someone "got it right or wrong". It does bear watching, and watching closely. I would warrant it even bears an attempt by the U.S. to participate in the next set or series of maneuvers as an extension of the Partnership for Peace endeavors. The old joke of where does the 600 pound gorilla sleep? Anywhere he wants to rings true when dealing with these two countries. Open dialogue, joint military maneuvers, trade negotiations, foreign student exchanges between military officers, increased state departmnet activity all lead to a better world.....Remember its far better to talk talk talk than to fight fight fight....I did that for nearly 30 years. It wasn't fun then. its probably not fun now. Some times you have to pull the trigger. But until you have to, its a whole lot easier to attempt the other route....

I think this is a step, and nothing more.

A step in what direction? To tell the truth, I don't think even China and Russia know.

But depending on how this goes, there may be more steps. Seeing several steps in a certain direction may make it possible to predict the destination. At this point, however, it could be deception as much as anything else. I doubt it will accomplish very much, either, except for C&R being able to say, "we did it".

And maybe it has multiple meanings. Maybe Taiwan will take it as aimed against Taiwan, Japan will take it as aimed at Japan, India will take it as aimed at India, etc...

...and China may be just engaging in Cargo Cult-inspired posturing, i.e., great world powers do joint exercises with other nations, and we want to be a great world power, ergo, we must do joint exercises with other nations...

Russia and China are two of the most notoriously paranoid countries in the world (after maybe NK and the former Iraqi regime). I think they just want to see what each other has in their hold cards. They are also both way too insecure NOT to show off their best stuff in hopes of impressing the other.

Only together do they have a prayer of standing up to the US militarily. And you haven't even mentioned air power, in which we are so dominant that ground and sea forces become almost insignificant. I remember seeing an episode of Wings once on Naval Air power, in which they pointed out that a single carrier air group would rank as the fourth most powerful air force in the world. The USSR may have been in the top three, but I seriously doubt that Russia or China are there individually. Together, maybe, but both of their air doctrines have always relied heavily on numbers over technology. Gulf War I showed the world the falacy in that philosophy on the ground. It is probably even more remarkable in the air, where our 30 year old F14's and F15's are STILL the most dominant warplanes ever fielded anywhere. We haven't pushed their replacements primarily because they aren't necessary until someone develops a plausible threat to our last generation planes.

Good God. Between Vodkapundit and The Belmont Club, WHO NEEDS MAINSTREAM MEDIA? Thanks for so many insights and thoughtful analyses.

Thanks for the comments, Mr. Den Beste. Your analysis of the reasons for our actions in Iraq continue to make more sense than anything I’ve come across elsewhere.

(for an entertaining review of some bizarre aspects of Spratly Island history: http://www.hampshireflag.co.uk/world-flags/allflags/spr.html)

David March, animator & fiddler

Scott,

Amost all of the F-14's are at Davis-Mothan AFB (Mothballs) and have been replaced by F-18's. The F-15's though are still on duty, however, Langley AFB now has two (I think) F-22's. Pretty tough bird. Saw it up close the other day, and in the air performing some very tight turns. I don't know the production rate, but it will be replacing the F-15's....tom

Imagine all the listening devises and spying going on!...Russia and China are both so non trusting of everyone it would make for some interesting History!