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Posted by Stephen Green  ·   7 March 2005

The writing is on the wall for Baby Assad:

Two years ago, Colin Powell took Jordan's King Abdullah to one side and told him, modifying a Rumsfeldian paradigm, that America saw him as part of "the new Middle East". The Sauds, Mubarak and Gaddafi are not entirely on board with this "new Middle East" thing, but since January 30 they've been doing their best to pretend they are - and the easiest way to do that is to stick some loser with the label of "old Middle East". Syria's prestige, such as it is, rests on its subordination of Lebanon. Abandoning that on a time frame demanded by Bush and the Beirut babes doesn't exactly communicate strength. The Iranians are still officially Assad's pals, but the word is that even they wouldn't be averse to a palace coup.

The New York Times' Thomas Friedman was arguing a couple of weeks back that Syria plays by "Hama rules" - a reference to the town whose inhabitants Pop Assad slaughtered en masse. I think he's wrong. Those days are over. Even if you've got the stomach for it, with 150,000 US troops on your border going the exhibitionist corpse-piling route is a much bigger gamble than it was in the "stability" era. Syria, at the very minimum, is being neutralised and turned in on itself.

That's from Mark Steyn's latest, and I suggest you read the whole thing.

What Steyn doesn't say - and perhaps doesn't need to - is that if Assad is gone, then so is Syria as we've come to loathe her. The lesson learned in South Korea and the Philippines, at the Berlin Wall and in front of the Russian Parliament building is that once the fear is gone, so is the dictator. When the dictator goes, usually so does the dictatorship.

If Assad can't hold on to Beirut, odds are he won't be able to hold on to Damascus, either, even without 150,000 Coalition troops on his border.

Comments

Interesting them firing up Hiz. Wonder what the Iraqi shi'ites will do if we have to get involved?

Are they Shi'ites 1st or Iraqis who want to spread what they started?

And Iran will toss him over, too. Are they distancing themselves from Hiz, too, or letting them do some dirty work?

Posted by: Sandy P at March 7, 2005 06:31 PM

Dont forget to add the rapidly growing and increasingly competent Free Iraqi troops to that metric.

Why is it everyone thinks that dictatorships are stronger than free people? I thought we settled that issue on June 6th 1944?

( man, it must be hell to be chomsky/moore/sheen these days " Bush lied, people uh, voted (damn...) Not in my name....uh, well, all the messy parts, but the voting, well, that has yet to be proved does it.... "Bush lied" doesnt have quite the sting it used to does it? You dont hear alot about "evil halliburton- all about the oil" these days, do you?

Posted by: Frank Martin at March 7, 2005 06:44 PM

A little caution is in order though, Syria's Moukharabat
plays rough; its mentors were
an Eichmann deputy, Alois Brunner,
(who may or may be still alive)
paging Professor Ward Churchill!
and the Soviet KGB. They've murdered at least two prime ministers, Bashir Gemayel &
Rene Mouyad. not to their liking.
Their joint product, Hezbollah,
in one year,83-84; killed the most Americans, until 9/11. According to
one source, Tom Diaz of the VPC,
there's at least 14 cells in different US cities. Signs are
promising, but we have a way to
go.

Posted by: narciso at March 7, 2005 06:44 PM

You know, I'm not what you'd call exceptionally fond of blank verse, but narciso's wasn't half bad at all. :)

Posted by: Myopist at March 7, 2005 07:02 PM

what i love is leftists now raising the specter of Hiz (hez, haz, whatever) taking over lebanon like its a BAD thing...

i'm sorry mr. fisk, m. chiraq, etc.. i thought you were saying that hez and hamasa were perfectly decent chaps... political folks with some overly aggressive supporters.. you mean to say they're not?

hahahahaha

farkers going to pay, mother farkers are going to pay! such a great year!!!

Posted by: hey at March 7, 2005 07:57 PM

I have to say, "caution" is the watchword of the day. I have a feeling that "baby assad" might be pulling a "briar patch" move.

To wit:

http://wordunheard.blogspot.com/2005/03/coming-protests-in-beruit-another.html

I hope our high-booted scretary of state is telling assad where she is going to put that boot if he tries a little "gotta quench the violence" move.

Posted by: Frank Martin at March 7, 2005 10:27 PM

Mark unlike the MSM/DNC has been consistently right the last several years. The War on Terror will be as benificail to the free world as SDI was in the mid 80's. AS Mark has noted many times, I should add.

Posted by: Rod Stanton at March 8, 2005 05:57 AM

I have been wondering this for the past several months:

If the prospect of an Islamist government being elected to power justifies forestalling democracy, does that mean that forestalling a Communist government is equally justified?

That is, if a free Iraq might lead to a Shi'ite government, and a free Lebanon might lead to a Hizb'allah government, and both things are so horrific that it would be better to leave dictators and occupiers in place, does the prospect of a Communist government in Saigon, Santiago, or Manila justify keeping dictators and occupiers in place as well?

Posted by: Lurking Observer at March 8, 2005 09:03 AM

Bashar is finished. He always reminded me more of Fredo from the Godfather than a putative dictator who could instal fear in the hearts of his subjects. The only thing keeping him in power was his willingness to out-hardline the hardliners and not give an inch on any issue with any country -- ever. Now that he is agreeing to pull out of Lebanon, he is losing the appearance of being in control. Its just a matter of time before he loses control outright.

The question is what comes after him. I hate to say it, but I think a military coup is the most likely senario. Bashar's henchmen will want to hold on to their ill-gotten gains, and as members of a small minority in Syria, do not want to be subject to the wrath of the majority of the Syrian people if they capitulate.

Posted by: Sean P at March 8, 2005 11:24 AM

--Bush lied, people uh, voted--

I see a new bumpersticker.

Posted by: Sandy P at March 8, 2005 01:44 PM

I've said this before, and I'll say it again. We play very, very rough also. We didn't get to where we are purely by hard work and a sunny smile. we beat the living bejeebus out of a lot of people - including ourselves (see "General Sherman's March to the Sea" for an example of rough play). I don't care how the "Hama Rules" work, we can snap alot of spines if we want to. and if Syria wants to try, they're more than welcome to join the Japanese Empire on teh pile of tough guys taken apart.

Posted by: Mikey at March 9, 2005 02:48 PM

In response to Lurking Observer's question, I think the answer lies in the willingness of an Islamic government, or for that matter a Communist government, to resubmit themselves to election after their term of office. I.e. can they adapt their ideology to the idea that they aren't the only game in town? I think this is perfectly possible in the current climate.

Posted by: James Hamilton at March 10, 2005 07:02 AM



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