VodkapunditVodkapunditVodkapundit
Flat Panel Flu
Posted by Will Collier  ·   5 March 2005

Like a whole lot of other gadget freaks (this one included), the Blogfaddah has come down with a serious case of Flat Panel Flu. He's been shopping around for a medium-sized screen, and asks,

But my main sense is that this is a purchase where waiting a few months is probably likely to lead to big improvements on the price-performance curve. Or are we past that phase now? Any advice?

I've been following plasma and LCD screens since the first time I saw one (on sale for $15,000, if memory serves), and I think the answer to Glenn's question is still, "If you can stand it, wait a while longer." Cheapskate guru Clark Howard is on record predicting that large flat-panel television prices are going to drop by as much as 50% by the end of this year, and there are industry analysts who agree with him.

Personally, I'm still waiting it out. The price-for-screen-size I'm looking for isn't here quite yet, but I think I'll be taking the plunge before 2006. Ed Driscoll has written quite a bit about this technology profesionally, and anybody interested could do worse than checking out Ed's archives.

Comments

These are the times that try men's souls.

Posted by: Webster at March 5, 2005 10:00 AM

Never pay more than about $1000 for any technology that has a shelf life of less than 24 months. Plasma and flat panel technology can be said to be "new and improving", not "old and maturing". No matter what you get, in two years you will be outclassed by something that does twice what you have today at half the cost.

( Once upon a time,I watched people willingly pay 1000 dollars for a "Compact Disk" player because it was "sooooo coool" now they give practically them away. The same is true of DVD players. It just goes to show you how the mighty do fall...)

For the main room, I have a sony HDTV rear projection screen, it works perfect, it cost 1100. In the office I use an Infocus projector, it cost $800 and after work hours it serves as an HDTV projector. It also works perfect and since its "dual use" its easier to justify.

I do crave a big screen plasma flat panel screen, but as long as the content I'm watching is the same 25 cent tv shows that are made today,Im in no hurry, it will get here, and in the not too distant future, 56 inch plasma HD will be available for "about a thou".

My biggest complaint about the flat panel HDTV isnt the screen itself or its cost, its that there is not enough content out there that actually makes the screen worthwhile. Spending 5,000 dollars to watch black and white reruns of twilight zone doesnt seem to make a whole lotta sense.

Posted by: Frank Martin at March 5, 2005 10:27 AM

I would definitely wait. First, prices will come down significantly in the next year or so. Second, and more importantly, most people don't know that flat panels/plasmas have significantly poorer quality of pictures. So you are basically paying more for a lower quality of product.
I guess if you really need that extra foot of space it might be worth it, but personally I am a big believer in projection and tube televisions until the quality of flat screens goes up and the prices goes way down.

Posted by: armchairgenius at March 5, 2005 11:28 AM

In any event it might not be a bad idea to "invest" in an ATI HDTV Wonder card, or a ATSC STB. If you have the space (like a media niche) a CRT RPTV are almost always going to be the way to go. Cheaper better blacks. Typically a good lifespan (if you avoid burn-in). You just have to have the space...wouldn't work nearly as well in a bedroom. Then a LCD or Plasma makes more sense.

Posted by: Joel B. at March 5, 2005 11:36 AM

First of all, everything Frank said regarding "buy now, regret later" is completely correct. That understood, I've just never been a big fan of projection sets of any technology. Yes, DLP looks really good compared to traditional rear projection, and it's definitely better in price terms compared to the "flats," but to my eyes, even DLP still has that washed-out projection look, and the limited viewing angle drives me nuts.

Thus, I'm still in the direct-view camp. My next "major" set will be some flavor of flat panel, since I've already maxed out on CRT size, and I'd rather have all that extra space back. I'm not as worried about making the transition from "regular TV" to an HD screen, because all my SDTV comes in digital now and gets routed through my ReplayTV (740 x 480 resolution), and in theory should look as good as a standard DVD when played back through the component inputs of a newer screen (I'm using S-video on a 10-year-old Toshiba now, and it looks great)--but I'll certainly be testing that theory before I buy anything.

But like I said above, I haven't found anything in Flatland that's hit my price-spot yet, so...

Posted by: Will Collier at March 5, 2005 11:50 AM

I'm guessing that it's not a real money issue for Glenn, and what he's really looking for is advice on which panel to purchase.

If it gets better and cheaper by the end of the year, Glenn isn't going to be weeping he wasted his money. Rather, he'll move the old panel TV to the guest bedroom and get a new one for the main viewing room.

Most people don't have the visual skills to notice the difference in performance of these products, so telling them to wait until something "significantly" better and cheaper comes along isn't a real help.

Someone just tell Glenn which one is better and let's move along.

Posted by: William Young at March 5, 2005 11:54 AM

You just said magic words - "Clark Howard." I'll wait.

Posted by: Michael Tinkler at March 5, 2005 12:16 PM

I think its more of an "lets get a lot of Amazon referral links in fron of the Punditers."

Posted by: dan at March 5, 2005 01:11 PM

A few months ago I spent $1800(Good Guys were selling them at cost) and I bought a 42" plasma tv. By the end of the first night a pixel had already burned out. The sound was the worse I had ever heard from a TV and for watching normal TV, which is about 90% of my TV use. Coming in from a coax there was no increase in picture qualty over a regular TV, though it was nice to see Laurie Dhue's face on a screen that big. I also bought it for ease of moveability, which being a college student I tend to do a lot, but then was told I can't lay it down flat, so that plus went out the window also

Hence I returned it the very next day. Went to Costco and got a 36" Toshiba TV and it has been the best purchase I've ever made. As long as you don't run your cable through a cable box/satelite receiver then this thing is loaded with such cool picture in picture features that it makes it extremely worth it. It also has enough connections in the back that it allows for any sort of connection that you want to set up for your home entertainment system. I have my satelite receiver connected with Monster Componenet cables and the picture looks great.

So maybe I just had a bad experience with Plasma TV's but until I can be assured that screen won't likely burn out right away or any of my other gripes will be dealt with I won't be getting one anytime soon.

Posted by: Mike at March 5, 2005 02:11 PM

HDTV is like computers used to be - much better equipment at the same price *real soon now.* The difference is that with HDTV, you can see one of the end points - resolution. 1080px1920 screens will be where most sets settle and then it'll be a matter of what technology can deliver the best image for the buck.

This past January's CES showcased a lot of different 1080p solutions, DLP being the front runner. Those sets should be hitting the market within the next few months.

The washed out look of current gen DLP chips that Will dislikes is supposed to have been addressed with TI's new DLP chip which boasts a fivefold improvement in contrast ratios. But DLP is still going to be a tech that has a narrower viewing angle than CRTs do. So for some of us, 34" will be enough in which case CRTs will be the model of choice simply because it delivers the absolute best image. For some of us who want bigger screens, I'm betting DLP will end up taking the lion's share of sales.

Posted by: michael at March 5, 2005 03:14 PM

Joel B — Cheaper better blacks? Is that part of Howard Dean's strategy to get the South to rise again with a D in its name?

Posted by: richard mcenroe at March 5, 2005 07:51 PM

There are some major LCD plants ramping up now that are going to change the dynamics of this market drastically. Plasma folks are dropping their prices now in a pre-emptive mode. LCD manufacturing is progressing a little more slowly than some predicted, but it’s going to happen.

And there’s this: When a 30”X50” plasma panel has a couple bad pixels, its hosed. When a 30”X50” LCD panel has a couple bad pixels, it can be transformed into a bunch of laptop screens.

I would guess that around July-Aug-Sept things will start dropping. Next Feb-Mar we should see some bargains. So wait.

Posted by: jmaster at March 5, 2005 08:03 PM

Who cares, the Australian Grand Prix is on live at the Speed Channel.
Get with what's important!
Mike

Posted by: Mike Daley at March 5, 2005 08:26 PM

Yikes! I meant cheaper sets, and far blacker black projection, that's the washed out affect people complain about(usually). CRTs usually look bad at Big Box retailers because they are given the worst floor space and lighted improperly. This is logical because the CRTs have less margin on them. Generally a CRT, however, will give you the best picture, and definately the best picture at best price.

Posted by: Joel B. at March 5, 2005 08:32 PM

I have to say I too was skeptical about projectors in the beginning. In fact, my biggest issue when I bought one was what the return policy would be. Once I was satisfied that I could "try before I buy" it made the experiment that much easier to take. I went through 4 vendors offerings before settling on the Infocus. Infocus has a reputation in the field as a good traveling projector for presentations. Since I bought mine last year, they have both upped the number of lumens and increased the bulb hours, and yet managed to lower the price of the units.

Now that I have a projector, Id never go back to a traditional monitor. Theres just something about banging code on a 72 inch wide screen that is too nice to pass up.

My only real complaint is that they kick up a lot of heat and the bulbs have a definite lifespan. Also most vendors tend to ship with a low hour bulb in the machine,so sure enough the first bulb dies at 1000 hours. The replacement bulbs all seem to go 4000 hours or more and for some reason are even brighter than the original bulb. Buy your replacement bulb at the time you get the initial machine. Why do they ship with an inferior bulb? My guess is to keep the projectors in the same price range as the larger LCD monitors.

The other issue is that the projectors are often best when they are wall or ceiling mounted, which makes for a big ass long monitor cable. I personally hate visible cables, so it took quite a bit of work to figure out a mount that allowed the monitor cable to be hidden. The long ass monitor cable is another hidden expense but in the end its worth it.

What having a wall projected monitor allowed me to do was to remove the traditional office desk set up and replace it with a reclining sofa and a wireless keyboard and mouse. In my work, its almost all on keyboard input, I almost never write anything by hand. As it turned out the only thing my desk was holding up was my monitor, and once that was gone, it made little sense to keep it. So, once the office desk was gone, the office became an office by day and a home theater after hours.

My best advice is to try one for awhile and see how it works. The technology gets better and cheaper every day.

Posted by: Frank Martin at March 5, 2005 09:17 PM

I seems to me that from what I've read, when a plasma or lcd goes bad, it is not repairable. Seems like a lot of money to spend for something which may be quickly "disposible". My Sony 36" flat screen is a great set.

Posted by: Don Bear at March 5, 2005 10:30 PM

While prices of LCD flat panels _might_ come down, the increasing price of crude oil could cancel those savings due to higher raw material costs and shipping costs down the road. :-(

I do think that DLP is the way to go, especially now with the latest DLP improvements (especially from the Mitsubishi models). Yes, their viewing angle is a bit narrow but the picture quality is outstanding, especially in terms of sharpness.

Posted by: MtViewGuy88 at March 5, 2005 10:37 PM

Um, Crude oil just hit 55$ for a 55 gallon drum.

Even if you needed a whole barrel to make a fancy HDTV set, and they passed the price increase directly to you, you're out maybe, 15$.

The falling American dollar has FAR more impact on the costs of things that are made overseas.

And finally, if you're buying an HDTV set, decide what you budget is, and then buy the best set for your money. The tech is always advancing, so waiting for the best set or the best price will be an infinite wait.

Posted by: ErikZ at March 5, 2005 10:55 PM

Wouldn’tcha know Will and Glenn and everybody would start writing about flat panels just AFTER I pick one. Same thing happened with cameras a few months ago.

The thing is, for me, the “I’ll wait another year” phase started two and a half years ago. I’ve been limping along the whole time with a 13 year old CRT with a broken tuner and an intermittent buzz. These “prices will plummet next year!” articles have been coming out ever since I started paying attention, and for the most part they’ve been reasonably accurate. The class I ordered – 42” 768p plasma – has dropped about $1k in each of the last two years and can now be had in the low $2k’s.

Sure, it’s usually sensible to wait buying a fast-moving technology, but if you never buy it, you never get to use it.

Posted by: ArtD0dger at March 5, 2005 11:03 PM

We have a Panasonic flat screen. We paid 3,000 euros for it with the stand. My husband just told me that the viewing hour life is about 10,000 hours. I figure we can watch 4 hours a day and we will only get about 4 years out of this TV. Think about how often you watch. How often do you watch C-span, the Sunday talking heads? How many movies do you watch a week? Are you going to want to do a marathon of Star Wars?

Posted by: Amani S at March 7, 2005 07:50 AM



Navigation

MDS - Give Until It Hurts

Terror War Scorecard
Watching America

50 Things
American Cancer Ablation Center
Buy VodkaPundit Stuff



VodkaPundit on Amazon
Vodkapundit for PDA (AvantGo)
Vodkapundit for PDA (Not)
VodkaPundit XML or RDF

Search



Advanced Search



Last Call

The Author

"...Steve Green is to blogging what John Holmes was to enormous penises."
-Jeff Goldstein

Absolut Link

Blog-Iran

Top Shelf

Ann Althouse
Baldilocks
Austin Bay
Belmont Club
Tim Blair
Chequer Board
Command Post
Counterterrorism Blog
Day By Day
Daniel Drezner
From the Bleachers
Hit & Run
INDC Journal
Iraq the Model
James Joyner
James Lileks
Megan McArdle
OPFOR
Protein Wisdom
Glenn Reynolds
Bill Roggio
ScreedBlog
Roger L. Simon
Rob Smith
Steven Taylor
Venomous Kate
Matt Welch
Winds of Change
Michael Yon
Yuppies of Zion


The Usual

Across the Atlantic
Anticipatory Retaliation
Atlas Shrugs
The Black Republican
Blogcritics
Captain's Quarters
Phil Carter
The Daily Ablution
Andrew Ian Dodge
Eye on the Left
Mike Hendrix
In From the Cold
Charles Johnson
Kathy Kinsley
A Likely Story
Brian Linse
Jay Manifold
Neocon News
Frank Martin
QandO
Bill Quick
Rantburg
John Scalzi
Sine Qua Non Pundit
Team Stryker
Mac Thomason
Michael Totten
Jesse Walker
Dr. Weevil
Bill Whittle
Chief Wiggles
Sissy Willis
Cathy Young

Micro Brews

American Realpolitik
Black Five
Boots and Sabers
Capitalist Lion
Scott Chaffin
John Cole
Coming Anarchy
Bo Cowgill
Dr. Frank's Blogs of War
Donklephant
Ed Driscoll
Kim du Toit
Glenn Frazier
Joe Gandleman
The Gay Patriot
Godless Capitalist
Bill Hobbs
John Hudock
Frank J.'s IMAO
Joanne Jacobs
Brothers Judd
Junk Yard Blog
Major John
Davids Medienkritik
Mr. Misha's Rottweiler
Only Baseball Matters
Matt Moore
Jack O'Toole
Peaktalk
Eric S. Raymond
Red Sugar
Resurrection Song
Robin Roberts
Andrea See
Mathew Sheren
Spoons Experience
DC Thornton
Yankee Station

Gin & Tonic

Albion's Seedlings
American Digest
Radley Balko
Paul Berger
Robert Bidinotto
Blogometer
BusinessPundit
The Chicago Boyz
Classical Values
Conrad the Expat
Susanna Cornett
Dave Cullen
England's Sword
Dean Esmay
Horsefeathers
Jessica's Well
Alex Knapp
Legal Spin
Light of Reason
The Lipstick Republican
Moxie
OxBlog
Suman Palit
Punch the Bag
The Pursuit of Happiness
Samizdata
Sofia Sideshow
Natalie Solent
Texas Best Grok
Professor Michael Tinkler
Cal Ulmann
Brothers Volokh

Cosmopolitans

Justene Adamec
Stephen Bainbridge
La Shawn Barber
Moira Breen
Sasha Castel
Colorado Psycho
Clayton Cramer
CrossingWallStreet
Martin Devon
Kevin Drum
Henry Hanks
Diana Hsieh
Jeff Jarvis
Jessica
Sean Kirby
Liberty Belles
Rachel Lucas
Jeralyn Merritt
Philip Murphy
Oasis of Sanity
Andrew Olmsted
Walter Olson
Michael Parker
Popped Culture
Porphyrogenitus
Fritz Schrank
Donald Sensing
Elizabeth Spiers
The Swanky Conservative
Two Blowhards
Michael Ubaldi
Alexandra von Maltzan
Will Wilkinson

Rum & Coke

The Argument Clinic
Below the Beltway
The Bitch Girls
Jay Caruso
Dog's Life
Fire On The Mountain
GeckoBlue
GZ Expat
David Hogberg
John Hawkins
Horologium
Kris Lofgren
Floyd McWilliams
John Moore
PhotoDude
Robyn Pollman
Chas Rich
Silflay Hraka
Geitner Simmons
Skippy
Dave Tepper
Transterrestrial Musings
Trying to Grok
Walter in Denver
Don Watkins
Weekend Pundit
Joshua Zader

Tequila Shots

Todd A
N.Z. Bear
Begging to Differ
David MSC
Gary Farber
Highered Intelligence
Isntapundit
Jonathan and Wanda
Ken Layne
Nick Marsala
Dan Michalski
Sheila O'Malley
Dawn Olsen
Tony Pierce
Raving Atheist
Matt Traylor
Sekimori
WMET Blog
World Wide Rant

Manischewitz

Moe Freedman
Tal G. in Jerusalem
IsraPundit
Kesher Talk
Mike Silverman
Allison Kaplan Sommer
Meryl Yourish

Boozehounds

Allah Is In the House
Dave Barry's Blog
The Daily Sedative
Doug Dever
Daniel Frank
Scott Ott
Large American Penis
Short Strange Trip
Ten Fingers, Six Strings
Jim Treacher

Cyanide-Laced Kool-Aid

Laurence Simon

Sex on the Beach

Body in Mind
ErosBlog
Eroticalee
Just One Bite
Fred Lapides
New York Hotties
SLA
Unablogger

Kegger

Ben Domenech
HokiePundit
Hoosier Review
John Tabin
Nicholas West

Fosters

Duck Season
Mike Jericho
John Ray
Bernard Slattery
Whacking Day

Molson

Banana Counting Monkey
Daimnation!
Dispatches
David Janes
Western Standard

Left Wing Bar Nuts

Ted Barlow
Joshua Marshall
Dan Perkins

Cover Charge

Eric Alterman
Dave Barry
Barone Blog
Austin Bay
Jay Bryant
C-Log
Campaign Desk
Steve Chapman
Dallas News Blog
Matt Drudge
Google News
Nat Henthoff
Hugh Hewitt
Mickey Kaus
Howard Kurtz
National Review Online
The New Republic
The New York Times
Newsweek
OpinionJournal
Kathleen Parker
Daniel Pipes
Virginia Postrel
Roll Call
Larry Sabato
Linda Seebach
Slate
Sploid
Mark Steyn
StrategyPage
Andrew Sullivan
Tapped
Tech Central Station
Time
US News & World Report
David Warren
The Washington Post

Under the Table

American Times
Angry Left
Asparagirl
BitchPundit
John Braue
Shiloh Bucher
Carthaginian Peace
Lorenzo Cortes
Steven Den Beste
Fevered Rants
Scott "Funkadelic" Ganz
Juan Gato
Happy Fun Pundit
Andrea Harris
Scott Koenig
Brink Lindsey
Sue Lizano
Kieran Lyons
Mean Mr. Mustard
Meeshness
Punditwatch
Dennis Rogers
Jim Ryan
Spinsanity
Unremitting Verse
Norah Vincent
Tony Woodlief

Archives

Powered by Movable TypeDesign by Sekimori