I think the answer is between you and Frank. I do agree that it won't be as close as national polls predict. Candidate patterns in the final days (Cheney in Hawaii? Bush in Pennsylvania?) show that Kerry will do well just to hold on to his base states.

Bottom line: It's not 1972 nor 1984. It's 1980. Bush with 310 EV.

The infamously inaccurate Star/Tribune poll (always overestimates Democratic support; had Mondale over Coleman in '02) may be obscuring the real situation in Minnesota. I think Bush's chances there are no worse than 50%, and various Minnesota blogs (Bush supporting, to be sure) have reported far more enthusiasm among Bushies than among Kerryites. This may be a profit opportunity.

If Bush carries MN, which virtually guarantees a Bush victory, start paying attention to MN governor Tim Pawlenty, who has demonstrated a knack for appealing to the Christian social conservative while also being attractive to the more socially moderate suburbanites. If Bush lends any subtle assistance in burnishing Pawlenty's foreign policy credentials in the wake of Minnesota going GOP for President since the Nixon-McGovern blowout, you may be looking at a real racehorce for '08. A media-savvy midwestern governor who can still energize the Republican base in the south would be very, very, hard for the Democrats to match up with.

Tradesports has been under a tremdous surge of what can only be called 'market manipulation' as of late.

Another big swing factor - early voting has been underway for some time in several states. Whats interesting is the exit polls from the early polling is showing a 55/45 break for Bush.

Is this going to be the prediction thread?

I'm saying Bush gets 290-300 EV. Keep the map above but give either HI, WI, MN, or NH to Bush.

And holy cow Frank! Not that even that big of a Bush win is out of the realm of possibility when so many states are so close, but just about everything would have to break his way. We can always hope though!

Bush gets 296. He gets Wisc, Ohio (by 5 points), Iowa, Florida, and New Mexico. Kerry gets Penn, NH, and Hawai'i (by a hair).

You heard it here first.

jpd

I commented on Franks blog and I'll say it here (since I live in Wisconsin). I don't think Wisconsin is by any means a Bush lock. From TV viewing here - Kerry is agressively campaigning with commercials here. I'm seeing at least 2 Kerry commercials for every Bush commercial (if not 3-1). Combine that will polls showing an extremely tight race here and it's a toss up.

Here's a non-partisan one and its even better!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

My bet is that standard methods of polling are useless in the modern age. The polls of the last few elections show repeatedly that they are less than effective predictors of final results.

If the polls were effective, President Al Gore would have won 310 EV's and there would be a Senator Stickland in Colorado and Senator Mondale in Minnesota and Govenor Davis would still be in office in California. The house and senate would be solidly in the hands of the Democrats. None of this is true, but if you use polls as predictors this would be the world you would expect to see.

The distributed age is here, and with it a whole new method has to be devised to sample the electorate in an accurate fashion. Add to this, an aging electorate raised more on the Reagan revolution than the legacy of FDR, one that continues to trend conservative despite polls that say it should be otherwise.

The distrbuted age has given us 500 channels of information and a wide and diverse internet. Newspapers that once served as the 'fountain of accepted information' now serve only as the best place to find coupons for Target and wal-mart, their content is largely ignored.

Newspapers and their surrogates on Television used to set the tone and tempo of american politcs, in the distributed age they are no longer capable of providing this service.

The world has changed, its moved under our feet, and most of us dont even know it yet.

The big loser in this election will not be Kerry or Bush, but the world of corporate media for which Polls serve as only one of a host of tools that they use not to determine opinion as much as make it.

Where are you getting this data?

What is the truth about the exit polls. My husband, the masochist, can't stay away from those news shows. He's been hearing that early voting exit polls are heavily for Kerry.

I'm way past nail biting.

Mr Martin is right. The 2000 election gave the lie to exit polling, and this election is going to broaden that betrayal. Mr Bush wins by six to eight percent of the popular vote, he wins by around 290 electoral votes, and the MSM and Democratic party stand embarassed by their incompetence and collusion.

erp: The data is taken from the Tradesports, an online trading exchange. They allow traders to buy and sell 'contracts' for a given event, which are essentially a bet that said event will occur. The contract prices are organized such that the price is supposed to reflect the probability that the event will occur, based on the consensus of everyone who's trading at any given moment. To see the data that Steven's basing his map off of, click on "Politics" on the left sidebar on the tradesports man page, then click on "US Presidential Elec."

It's anybody's guess how accurate it all is, and as mentioned above, there have been suspicions that someone has been gaming the system by placing large orders in an attempt to affect the price. I guess we'll all find out tomorrow (knock on wood, rub rabbit's foot, turn around three times and spit).

Hey Max non-partisan this........ http://electionprojection.com/state-by-state.html

No matter how beautiful this map looks, I aint buying it.

2 Million early votes already in for Florida - I am sure they are ALL democrats.

Also, what's the bias at TradeSports - are they 60% Republicans?

I say things are on Kerry's side, and come November 3/4 - we'll know its Hail to President Kerry.

I just dont understand why, if so many people want to have a government like France, why dont they just move to France?

This illustrates the reason I don't have comments at my site. Don't you trolls have a life?

On august 15th, Ray Fair said this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/15/magazine/15QUESTIONS.html

He has revised his numbers since then - Upwards for Bush.

Ray Fair is a Kerry Supporter.

Daniel wrote:
No matter how beautiful this map looks, I aint buying it.

That's the current status of people who are putting their money where their mouth is. It's not a pie-in-the-sky projection.

Frank: You're not the first to mention that someone is dumping huge wads of cash on Tradesports. I've been watching the electoral map under discussion at Geekmedia for the last few months, and I can think of three times when the betting suddenly surged for Kerry. By way of contrast, Bush betting is more gradual and prolonged.

The last surge took place last week. I wonder if there will be one more "push" tomorrow?

If someone is actively trying to dump large wads of cash in order to influence wagering (and voting), it would explain what we're seeing. Soros has said on numerous occasions that he'd be willing to spend whatever it takes to defeat Bush.

OTOH, Tradesports isn't the actual *voting* itself; it's just futures wagering. If this is manipulation, do the manipulators really believe that their actions can change voting patterns? Do they believe in a "bandwagon" effect?

Earlier this year, MoveON.org went ballistic over a Gallup poll showing Kerry way behind. Now, why would they do that? It's a POLL. It's not the ACTUAL VOTE. Again: It appears to be a strong belief in the "bandwagon" effect.

If the Dems have pinned their hopes on swaying undecideds by dumping large wads of cash into Tradesports, then they are far more desperate than I realized. It will make the final victory all the sweeter.

Oh God, the next two days are going to be pure hell. Frank , I sure hope you are right, I won't believe NJ and Delaware go red unless I see it with my own eyes. I DO think all that campaigning with the movie stars and Springsteen has done Kerry no good at all, and probably a lot of harm, shows he is more interesting in hob-nobbing with them, then the WOT. Man, 381 EVs for Bush, in my wildest dreams I would never expect that. The most positive thing is that betting line showing all that money for Bush. Let's hold our breath.

Daniel,

Say all you want, but at least for me, Kerry will NEVER be president in my heart.

He will NEVER have my allegiance.

Newton, forshame, don't be like a left-wing nut and claim "not my president" whoever wins this election is everyone's president regardless of who you voted for

Frank, I ask the same q as erp. Where did you get the exit poll data????

Bush 317.

Senate 54 / 45 / 1

House + 7 Republican.

You heard it here first.

By the way Max - electoral-vote.com has been a Kerry partisan (slightly left of Ted Kennedy) since he started posting. Look at all of his site, not just the map.

"The big loser in this election will not be Kerry or Bush, but the world of corporate media for which Polls serve as only one of a host of tools that they use not to determine opinion as much as make it."

Here here, Frank. "Big losers" and "a host of tools" are great ways to describe big media. This election will a 16-inch shell straight into their powder magazine.

Anyone TiVO-ing election night? I'll pay good money for a DVD (or even an avi or mpeg) burn of Brokaw and/or Rather's reaction when they finally call the election.

Newton:

If Kerry wins the election, it is arrogant to pretend he isn't your President. While I didn't like the man, I still accorded respect to President Clinton during his eight years in office.

Your praise of President Bush will carry more weight if you give respect to elected officials on the other side of the aisle.

I like the idea of futures markets as a source of prediction. However, let's not forget that markets are not infallible. Nasdaq 5000 in 2000 was an implicit prediction of Nasdaq 10,000 in 2004 (or something like that). Didn't quite work out, did it?

They will get as much respect as they've given.

They've lowered the bar, I will do what I did during 8 years of the former panty-snapper-in-chief, press the OFF button when he's on.

Daniel, I can assure you that at least two early votes in Florida weren't for Kerry.

And someone asked don't we have a life??? How can we??? This election is rendering us unfit to be seen in public.

I had problems uploading my own EC map to my blog, but prediction is Bush 306, Kerry 232 (giving Bush Wisconsin and Minnesota, along with those on your map).

I think Frank is reaching it a bit, though; Kerry's up by eight in Oregon and twelve in New Jersey.

Newton:

Not to pile on, but I sincerely hope you are kidding about Kerry not being your President. Should Kerry win, it will be a major challenge to the right/center folks to make sure we don't act like the moonbats have for the last 4 years.

Relax: we're all going to be ok no matter who wins. There will be plenty of elbow room for Respectful dissent.

Carl/Erp - I'm the anti-particle when it comes to polls. My whole premise is that they no longer work. At best they are only lagging indicators of trendlines. As a predictive indicators of voter intent, I think they stink. Their record as of late has gone from bad to worse.

My prediction is based on market sampling with tradesports and betfair as samples data producers, with a few people like economics professor Ray Fair of Yale with their mathematical models serving as a more accurate predictive indicators of electoral result than the machinations of Gallup and Zogby.

OK Frank. I just hope you are projecting what you truly believe will happen, rather than, as so many of us do, what we want to happen. I've done that many a time myself.

They forgot to include Michigan.

Remember, Republicans vote on Tuesday and Democrats vote on Thursday.

Carl - thats the beauty of the whole thing, nobody really knows until we vote. until then, no matter what voodoo enhanced mamma-jamma you put to it, its all just an educated guess.

My issue with polls is we never penalize a polling organization for acting as a candidates 'fluffer' after the election. We never go back over the polls to see how they did to the actual results.

The polls stink. and I'm not just saying that because my guy is winning.

I think this is pretty close to accurate. The polls are showing Bush up by 2, but the real result will be closer because of a large turnout (which helps Democrats).

But of course Tradesports is taking that into account.

Downtown Lad - http://downtownlad.blogspot.com

I am just ill. I've lost weight over this, tho I could stand to.

Via Gweilo Diaries, it should be this easy:

Clueless to the End

Former Indonesian president Megawati Sukarnoputri who, despite trailing the challenger 61-39% with all votes counted, refused to concede defeat, threatened to challenge the results, declined to cooperate with any presidential transition and boycotted her opponent's inauguration, corrects a misconception regarding why she no longer occupies the presidential palace:

"We did not lose. We were just short of votes."

About 32,000,000 to be exact.

Remember, you cant charge the dems without charging the reps.

Bush with 294+
If Bush wins NH, it will be the beginning of a good night.

Daniel, To say that all 2 million votes in Fla have ALL been Kerry votes, shows a very mental midget level of intelligence. I have 6 family memebrs there that have already voted. They all voted for Bush, so right there proves your remarks are just off the hip BS.

If your going to add to a conversation, atleast say something that sounds like we aren't listening to a 5 year old.

Here's another site with data to chew over. The Horserace Blog (http://jaycost.blogspot.com/) has worked some voodoo on figuring out the polls and is calling it for Bush as well.

"Generally, given Bush's strong position in IA, WI and NM -- Kerry would have to run the gamut of the big states. He'd have to win OH, PA and FL. If Bush wins any of these, the game is over. Given these polls, Kerry has a 1.85% chance of doing that -- which is to say, he has virtually no chance.

All of this strikes me as very consistent with a difference between the candidates of 2%-3%. If Bush wins the election by 2.17%, which is what my average currently shows, we would expect him to get between 276-300 Electoral Votes. In other words, we would expect Bush to win 2 of the 3 "Big 3" states. Right now, that looks likely to happen."

I just spent the day in New Jersey walking the vote with two life-long democrats who will themselves be voting the Republican ticket for the first time in their lives. The support for the incumbent was outstanding. What is reflected in the polls does not relect that which I experienced on the streets.

I suspect that the wild swings in the recent polls is do to ALL THE CALLING occurring by both sides I have been working in Phone banks for BC in PA, and I have noticed that of those who pick up the phone, most of them are people who have strong opinions either way. I suspect that a large amount of people are not answering their phones and only the truly committed are answering polling questions. This also raises questions about ZOGBY's polling since his samples are made up of volunteers. Could this be the end of Phone polling as we know it? maybe the market approach is a better way?

anyone know how Republican states came to be the color "red" and Democratic states came to be the color "blue"...is it just coincidence?

I live in Mich, where Big Union rules the roost, and I have never seen a dem candidate as "whatever" as Kerry is here. Usually I get lambasted with pro dem everything. Not this year. I seriously doubt that Kerry will win Michigan. The problems for Kerry are many.

Starting with...

Everything north of Detroit is shoot first, clean and cook later. The unions up here have all talked a good game for the last 12yrs, but they cant get anyone to lockstep vote with them anymore. The regular shop rat is much brighter now than they have ever been in the past.

They pretty much all drive greasy, smoke billowing sleds through the pristine woods on the way to kill or hook something, and the tax cut flushed all of them with cash.

The black vote it seems could care less, and the only ones really motivated are the church goers. The gay marriage thing I think will push them out the double doors on Sunday and into the voting booth on Tuesday.

The whole arab vote here I think is going to be a push as we also have one of the highest Iraqi ex-pat populations here.

In a nutshell, I don't think Kerry sells well here.

I am probably wrong, but this has been as good as I have ever felt about the great state of Michigan blazing red in an election cycle.

We will see....

Ant

Kenny,

The incumbent party is blue, and the other red. In 2000, Gore got blue.

In 2004, Bush should get blue. He may not, since everyone's been talking about "red states" and "blue states" for the last 4 years.

"anyone know how Republican states came to be the color "red" and Democratic states came to be the color "blue"...is it just coincidence?"

Kenny, I have two half-tongue-in-cheek answers for you. Both revolve around the MSM's leftward bias.

(1) As we know, red is the color of Communism. The MSM painted Republicans as Red to either (a) mock Republican anti-Communism of the Cold War or (b) say Republicans are the functional equivalent of Communists. I can't get into the postmodern liberal-arts-major mind enough to figure out which.

(2) Blue has associations of reason, dispassion, and logic; red has associations of passion, anger, and violence. As the MSM tells us, the red states are where all the hunting, fishing, lynching, bookburning, and fire-and-brimstone preaching goes on; the blue staters read philosophy, sip wine, drive Volvos, listen to NPR, etc.