Okay I know this is not anything really to base predictions on but I had to share:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=494&e=3&u=/ap/nickelodeon_president

Hey, if the kids want Kerry, who are we to argue?

So, Bush is doing better among blacks and women than he did in 2000. I saw a recent poll where he was up 10-15% among Jews since 2000, and I'm sure he is doing at least as well among Catholics. So, in theory, at least, close states like Ohio, Florida and PA should go to Bush in the end. in theory.

You know what this tells us? As close as the last election was, and now Bush is making serious inroads in non-white guys and stuff?

It tells us a lot of guys are getting all sissy-like, because if they weren't, Bush'd be killing those polls.

I blame MTV and Clinton.

Um, a lot of that depends on voter turnout as well. A disproportionate amount of blacks live in metropolitan areas where they will still be outnumbered by whites and Democratic blacks so it is likely those electoral votes will still go to Kerry. Really the only way that will affect Kerry is in metropolitan areas. Rural areas, void usually of blacks and Jewish people are historically more Republican in those states won't be affected. Plus it all comes down to voter turnout as well.

Not so fast, Britton. The "poll" you described representing the childrens vote was conducted as a web vote and therefore 1)unscientific and 2)highly likely to have been Kossified.
But if you're curious as to who the nations children do apparently support, heres a link for you:
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/news/allnewsbydate.asp?NewsID=851

This is also relevant since children very often support the same candidates as their parents, and may pass along information that their parents are reluctant to express to pollsters.

I increasingly think that Zogby and Rasmussen are the only pollsters worth watching, because neither of them show the wild volatility the others do--and I have trouble believing the electorate is really that volatile.

The amusing thing about my on statement being that Zogby says it's Kerry's race to lose and Rasmussen has Bush consistently ahead. ;-)

But that's not as weird as it sounds, because Zogby's basic position is that the few remaining undecideds will break 2:1 for Kerry because when people are uncertain about the incumbent they usually settle on the challenger at the last minute. If that is the case, Bush will lose in a squeaker.

I'm preparing myself for it. I don't much like Senator Kerry and I'm proud of the way the President has conducted this war, but if Kerry wins I'll do everything I can to support him when he's right and to dissent respectfully when he's wrong.

Where is all this "support" for Kerry coming from anyways? Bush is up among women, blacks, jews, catholics, hispanics, and the vast majority of the military.

Has there been a vast increase in wimpy WASP men out there that are all going to Kerry?

Yet one more reason to mistrust polls.

You must be an idiot if you think Bush is getting 17 % of the black vote. Bush may not even get 17 % of the popular vote. Do you wake up everyday, as I do, and wonder what kind of idiot we do we have in the white house?

Bush may not even get 17 % of the popular vote.

<long, loud, breathless laughter, which eventually fades away to a weak coughing, followed eventually by approaching sirens, the sound of the door being broken down, and a paramedic yelling "Clear!">

Do you wake up everyday, as I do, and wonder what kind of idiot we do we have in the white house?

No, but I do wonder sometimes what kind of idiots we have commenting on weblogs.