Pretty much echoes my thinking. I've been looking forward to the first debate because I believe it will give an almost ironclad indication of who will win in November.

If Kerry does well, and in his case, well means making Bush look incompetent and unsure, then he might be able to turn this thing around.

But if Bush does well, and I honestly find it hard to imagine how he couldn't given all the ammunition that Kerry stupidly gave him (flip-flops galore), then Kerry is toast.

Bush's strength is his consistency amd Kerry's weakness is that he has no clue what that word means.

VP:
It all matters, I suppose, but I think that unless President Bush shows up in an orange fright wig, an eyepatch and Winston Churchills 675 year old parrot who makes Blackbeard sound like Mr. Rogers, on his shoulders, POTUS should do ok.
Kerry, on the other hand could show up with Yoda, the Babe and, who knows, maybe Hillary has been gettin' real dirty in Pakistan and brings Osama to south Florida.
The show is over.
The debates, October and all the rest are triple-a.
Not big league.

Note to all: There is no debate on Thursday, This ia Joint campaign commercial whwere the costs are split. Get a gander at the provisos that are in the contract. Niether candidate can ask questions of each other, there are to be no reaction shots.

Kerry has successfully oversold his ability to deliver in this debate. He will almost certaily under deliver. Thanks to the "Ted Baxter Media" most Americans are aware the "Bush is Hitler" and will be surprised that he has shaved off the little cookie duster moustache for the debate.

Bush, by showing up and not taking a big wiz off the podium will most certainly do 'better than expected'.

Dick Morris has correctly stated that whatever position Kerry takes in the debate will certainly alientate half of his constituents. Whereas Bush with whatever answer he gives will hold onto his base and possibly expand it due to his simple manner of speaking reaching a far wider audience.

all that will happen on thursday is several myths will pass their "Drink Before" dates. First that Kerry is a good "closer". Second, that Bush is an idiot and Third, that Insane Politicians Disease is limited to just Howard Dean. Mr. Kerry is about to try to swing for the fences out of desperation and he will almost certainly strike out as a result of thrying to reach out for the ball.

If Kerry doesnt land a knockout blow on thursday ( and he wont) no one will bother to tune in for the other two debates.

If you're expecting the debates to change this election you just dont see how far we are down this stream, and for the Kerry campaign, that rushing sound they hear isnt the adulation of the crowds, its the Niagara falls, and he and his "little swift boat" is about to go over it, with the rest of the post-FDR Democratic party.

I think this is right. This will be the most-watched debate, and a lot of people will be tuning in to make up their minds if they aren't already made up.

I know that Kerry is supposed to be a master debater and Bush is consistently misunderestimated. The reality is Bush goes in with low expectations and has but to hold is own. If he outright wins, Kerry is severely damaged.

Kerry has the harder job. He can't just draw, he needs to win, and win big. This is because he's basically out of the game right now, and this is his last chance to get back in. He loses on Thursday he loses in November.

There are two more debates after this one, so whoever stumbles will have a chance to recover (though a Kerry stumble, since he's behind, will mean he has to do a lot better than Bush in the next ones.)

I'm looking forward to the vice-presidential debate. (Never thought I'd write that sentence). I suspect Cheney's going to hand Edwards' head to him. "You want to give uranium to the Iranian government?"

Frank has it. Kerry will either overplay his weak hand (Iraq and the Economy) or he will hold back. Either way he loses.

Basically Bush just has to avoid being defensive.

When Kerry attacks, all Bush has to do is calmly exlain himself. When Kerry presents a position, he just needs to recite a basic economic, logical, or human nature principle which blows it apart.

"I know that Kerry is supposed to be a master debater ..."

I am outraged that you would stoop to such a cheap shot at a US Senator, and .... oh wait, you said "master debater".

Never mind.

Bygones.

I'm sure Teresa is ...

never mind.

You do of course understand that the official judges will declare Kerry the winner on style points, and what we think of the content will be irrelevant.

Frank is correct in my view, it is just a side by side commercial. Of the ‘undecideds’ this will be the first and last ‘debate’ they watch. The ‘undecideds’ are, for the most part, people who don’t pay a lot of attention to politics. Kerry will not win the debate for lack of a sense of humor. Any attempt Kerry makes at humor will come off as arrogant and condescending. Bush, despite his poor speaking ability, has a self deprecating sense of humor that people will find infinitely more human.

I have to agree with Frank. The Kerry camp has portrayed Bush as such a hateful caricature that there's no way that he could possibly come across as evil and decietful as Kerry has made him out to be. It's why Bush's convention speech succeeded: when you put aside all the spin and actually listen to the guy you can't help but like him.

I wouldn't expect a shower of blood and barbs (although Bush could easily outright destroy Kerry on his flip flops), but Bush will probably try to kill with kindness. I would expect him to try and set a positive, light hearted tone to disarm Kerry's fire and brimstone, and to cripple Kerry with a few well placed needles delivered with a smile. You play to your strengths, and Bush's strength is rapport with the audience and the ability to show his humanity.

On the other hand, Kerry's "Howard Dean lite" routine is going to turn off a lot of people, including a good chunk of his base. If this is to be the showcase to people just starting to pay attention to the election and they're greeted with ranting and raving about Iraq, Kerry is going to hit rock bottom and splatter all over the pavement about 20 minutes in. If he has nothing positive to say, he's done.

Kerry can't win the election with this debate, but he can sure lose it.

Yawn. This is a man who even his own supporters acknowledge does best when he's out of the limelight, and the debates, where people will see him side-by-side with President Bush for 90 minutes at a shot (if they can stand it), are supposed to save him? Please. Kerry is toast. Personally, I like cinnamon and honey on my toast, and nice and crispy. Kerry is burnt beyond recognition, so I'll have to pass.

I have a confession to make.

I can barely stand Bush's style of public speaking- the pacing, the tone, the inflection, the pause-and-grin moments...almost all of it drives me nuts.

The thing that makes up for all of that is the content. The things W says- as opposed to how he says them- resonates, especially the foreign policy speeches. So I read the speeches, instead of watching them.

No matter what we see and hear on Thursday night, the MSM on Friday morning will proclaim that Kerry "held his own" and "tightened this race". His campaign will take on a "renewed vigor".

Can you say "Comeback Kerry" without gagging?

Compare and contrast. Bush shouldn't hit the Kerry flip-flop too hard (I hope, it's been done to death). Instead he'll demonstrate his focus, especially on individual responcibility, which has been a major focus of his entire political career.

CSPAN did a little bit on Kerry and Bush's style. In the clips, Kerry pulled off the humor things. Bush's speaking problems that he is known for didn't exist.

What the media says about he wins will have nothing to do with who wins.

"WHO wins"

I've been to a Kerry debate (vs Ray Shamie years ago). Shamie was a good man, businessman but not a polished politician by any stretch.
Kerry was, well Kerry. Pompous and arrogant. No one would say he "won" the debate. At best he held his own. Against a reasonable but not a particularly daunting opponent.
Kerry won't be terrible but he won't be able to get beyond "himself".