It'll do.

Posted by: Sandy P at September 13, 2004 12:28 PM

Is the hunch PA for Kerry??

Posted by: John Bigenwald at September 13, 2004 12:36 PM

It'll do for now. I believe Bush is close or leading slightly in polls for MN, IA, MI, PA, NH, ME which would redden the map even more. I still believe the result will be blue west coast, blue New England/New York/NJ/DE/MD, and then Illinois alone in a sea of red.

Posted by: AWW at September 13, 2004 12:37 PM

How bad is it getting that this is now looking like a map thats being generous to Kerry?

With Kerry's reduced ad buy (and presumptive cancellation of campaign stops) in 14 states, a lot of those stripey states aren't going to remain in play for much longer.

I say Bush will top 300, either by taking MI and NH, or PA. And Ohio is way up for Bush, 7-9 points...Sabato must have gotten old poll numbers or something.

Posted by: Mike M at September 13, 2004 12:58 PM

has anyone looked at aol's straw poll lately?
http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll.adp

What's this story about Colorado maybe going to divide their electoral votes?

Posted by: Burt at September 13, 2004 01:30 PM

ME already proportions.

Well, Sabato really did back off his prediction.

Posted by: Sandy P at September 13, 2004 01:38 PM

Bush will win Minnesota. I know that's not really the CW right now, but the Kerry folks here seem tired and the Bush folks are energized.

Posted by: The H-Bomb at September 13, 2004 02:06 PM

This CBS/DNC forgery scam has really started to energize the republican base. Not only that, but independents are starting to get disgusted with Kerry's dishonesty and flip-flopping.

Any traction Kerry's "Vietnam hero status" may have had early in the summer is fading fast.

Posted by: Lundgren at September 13, 2004 02:15 PM

Hmmm.

I still think NJ will got for Bush.

Posted by: ed at September 13, 2004 02:17 PM

I think you're right about a Kerry collapse benefitting Nader more than Bush, at least here in Oregon. Many people feel very guilty about voting for Nader last time, and if there's any chance at all Kerry will win, they'll hold their noses and vote for him. But if it's clear that he won't win, they'll happily go for Nader. The local Dems are really in a panic about him making the ballot.

Posted by: Kirk at September 13, 2004 04:00 PM

I believe that Bush has a real chance to run (most of) the table and pick up ME, NH, MI, MN, IA, PA, WV, NM and maybe even NJ and OR, especially after the October surprise(s) -- WMD proof in Iraq and/or the capture or killing of one or more of bin Laden, Zawahiri, Zarqawi, Mullah Omar, Hekmatyar or Mugniyeh. If both of those occur, WA and CT and DE and, dare I say it, CA may be closer than anyone would have imagined possible. The Yale professor's historically accurate computer model gives Bush 57.5% of the popular vote and the smoking hot Maria Bartiromo predicted a 12% Bush victory on Chris Matthews' show this weekend.

BTW, the aforementioned Matthews show was interesting in that Cokie Roberts predicted that white Catholics would really break for Bush near the end, and she looked disappointed and defeated as she said it.

Posted by: tibor at September 13, 2004 04:12 PM

Yeah, Cokie's a big DNC cheerleader, I remember watching ABC's coverage of the '94 "contract with America" election. (the one where Jennings accused the voters of having a "temper tantrum" that made them throw out so many Democrats) You could hear the disappointment in her voice every time she called a race for the GOP and the glee when she called one for the Dems. If she's giving up, Kerry is in really big trouble.

My favorite part of this map is that it doesn't depend on Bush getting Florida, so he wins even if the hacks in Broward find enough dimpled chads to pass off as legit votes.

Posted by: MarkD at September 13, 2004 05:06 PM

And Kerry is saying the Republicans will suppress the Black vote. A way to play the race card, or a way to explain away his (upcoming) defeat?

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/12/politics/campaign/12kerry.html

Posted by: Robert at September 13, 2004 06:02 PM

I get 284-254, with the same lineup. But I base my projections on the state-by-state betting at TradeSports.com. You can fool the polls, but you can't fool the markets.

Posted by: Tom at September 13, 2004 06:24 PM

I'm a republican, but I still am not comfortable. 7 weeks is a long time.

I will admit, however, that it all depends on turnout, and the democrat base is not energized about the Gigolo from Cambodia.

Posted by: Blind Hen at September 13, 2004 07:49 PM

JUST an FYI from this section of the battleground known as Ohio: In Hamilton County (Cincinnati), we have a good scandal going (sort of). The republican county prosecutor (former county GOP chairman) is in th middle of a Clinton-like scandal (remove President, insert Prosecucutor, remove intern, replace with assistant prosecutor, both married). Anyway, the fallout is that current prosecutor, formerly running unopposed, has today removed himself from the ballot. That means anyone running (currently 1 republican and 4 democrats) are ALL WRITE-INS. Local papers are saying that this will hold up returns by several hours as all ballots from this county must be reviewed by hand for all the write-in canidates. Hard to say who this may hurt at this point, but it throws Ohio's results, at least final results, behind Hawaii..

Posted by: Becky in OH at September 13, 2004 08:09 PM

Yeah, Cokie's a big DNC cheerleader

Well, what do you expect for goodness sake? Her father was Democratic Speaker of the House and she's got 200 years of family prominence in the Democratic Party (her great-great-etc. grandfather was Thomas Jefferson's secretary).

Posted by: Dave Schuler at September 13, 2004 08:57 PM

her great-great-etc. grandfather was Thomas Jefferson's secretary

So he was getting busy with Sally Hemmings AND his secretary... To think he had time to invent the dumbwaiter. Posted by: John Bigenwald at September 13, 2004 09:03 PM

I never watch tv news. I thought that Ms. Roberts had taken her death several years ago so she could pass on and fill a vacancy on the Trinity.

Posted by: Xixi at September 13, 2004 09:09 PM

Check out Rasmussen, which gives Bush a one point lead in PA. Obviously not a sea change, but still, Bush went up five points in two weeks.

Posted by: Chris S. at September 14, 2004 06:36 AM

Robert linked an article form teh NYTimes, about Kerry claiming that Bush is attempting to block black votes. The funny part to me, was that in the speech Kerry said "They've even mocked the very notion that there are two Americas. Well, they should spend time with struggling families in the hills of Appalachia, or in public housing in cities across this country, or in the barrios of East L.A. and then tell us our journey to build one America is finished."

I thought that his stand was that there were not two Americas, and he made Edwards drop that when he joined the ticket. Another Flip-Flop?

Posted by: Dan Hendrickson at September 14, 2004 07:57 AM

The whole problem is the use of red and blue states.

It would make much more sense with yellow and green.

Posted by: Laurence Simon at September 14, 2004 08:12 AM

I agree that a Kerry collapse helps Nader more than Bush.

However, a Kerry collapse should lead to fewer Democrats voting at all. And that does help Bush's percentages.

Posted by: Greg D at September 15, 2004 02:10 PM