Question for Kerry supporters: "If Kerry can't manage a simple thing like his campaign, what makes you think he can run something complicated like a country?"

"Staff re-orgs" are just one of the many signs of the onset of campaign "death rattle". Another is the phrase "wait till the debates".

I’m left wondering what card Kerry has left to play. He was dead in the water in Iowa until Rassman showed up, and he needed to bail out his campaign by mortgaging the Boston townhouse to the tune of $6 million. All to beat Dean.

You can’t pull the money trick when all you’re allowed to spend is your $75 million general election fund. It wasn’t the first time, either. He funded his own campaign against Weld in ’96 with a $1.7 million infusion in the final weeks, despite a gentleman’s agreement to limit personal funding to $500,000.

What else is there? Is some Senator going to come forward to tell a tale of being rescued after going overboard on a continuing resolution back in ’93?

Interesting thought: what's the relationship between campaigns and administrations? Is there a tendency for an administration to govern in the same manner as it campaigned? Looks like a little research is in order.

If so this does not bode well for a potential Kerry Administration. And it would be pretty much what we fear.

I am on record as saying that Kerry was a really weak candidate, but if you think about just a few things, you can see how weak he really is:

1) Kerry is still collecting a Salary from the voters of Massachusets. If you really believe that you are going to win, whats the sense of hanging on to the job? If you dont really believe you can win, why should anyone else? Men like Dole know how to do this, Johnny-run-between-the-raindrops cant understand why the nuanced answer is going to bite him.

2) Parallel campaigns. I've seen no evidence of any other campaigns in a hurry to stand next to John Kerry to "ride in on his coattails". In fact, as Mr. Green has pointed out, There are many Dems who are using President Bush to get to his coattails.

3) Key Staff changes. Kerry campaign is beset by the "too many chiefs and no indians" syndrome. we are now at about the 60 day level and the Kerry campaign is hardly playing an "A" game, if they dont have it together yet, at what point will they all start working together?

4) Who is playing who's game? Kerry has been on the defensive at almost every turn, and its going to get worse from here.

5) Where is Kerry campaigning? Last week he was in Washington and California. Really. Think about it and ask yourself , Why? Is there any doubt that Washington and California are solid for Kerry? Why take valuable time and money to go there if you dont need them? Perhaps because when you went heavy into Pennsylvania, your numbers went down?

6) Tone deaf commercials. The first time I saw the "Mission NOT accomplished" ads, I thought they were for Bush, asking for a second term. Now that I think about it, why was I seeing that ad at all in the California market if Kerry has it wrapped up?

Kerry can do a few things to get back in the game

A) Go to Iraq.

B) Fire half his campaign staff.

c) Denounce Mike Moore, loudly and proudly.

d) Meet with John O'Neil, one on one, man to man. agree to disagree but respect him.

e) Go to Veterans hospitals for photo ops.

f) Resign from the Senate.

g) Go to the southern border, make national security a prime issue.

h) talk about the Coast Guard about under funding and propose that 2 carriers be defunded to increase the size of the Coast Guard forces.

i) Go to Canada, slam Canadian politicians who call Americans "morons". He should make a speach that Proclaims "that while I have differences with Mr. Bush, he deserves respect and although he is a great many things, Mr Bush is no Moron and while I certainly disagree with him but he is my President and hes the best neighbor Canada ever had".

Doing it from Quebec and denouncing Quebecs policy on immigration tolerance policies of terrorists as a shame for "North America".

j) Go to Israel, support Sharon. Denounce Arafat.

Kerry already fired one campaign manager, didn't he? If you ask the best pastry chef to put whipped cream on moldy dough, you still get an unedible mess. Heck, this blog could direct the Kerry campaign better than it's going now, but Kerry has to listen.

Really it's too late now. Even if Kerry followed Frank's advice, he'd totally perplex the liberal Dems and the whole thing would come off as a desperate, phony, 11th hour farce.

As I've said before, Kerry could have been formidable. But 20 years of uncontested Senate campaigns, softballing from the media, and never being called on flip flops and contradicting stories has left him totally unprepared for the kind of scrutiny and meat grinder that is Presidential poltitcs. This was a race lost before it began.

read some DU, how they have predictions on how JFK is a lock (a lock I tell you!!)

with some badly done Monte Carlo sims...

we are all in our own personal echo chamber... but hopefully ours matches up with reality more (doing a sim where the worst your candidate has to deal with is a 49.5% poll and 50% of undecideds isn't a very good analysis, nor did they really do sensitivity.. i don't even think they put in the usual +-4%, etc... but then again, how smart do you have to be on DU?)

but really, JFK does look like he's taking on water... the "wait till debates" thing does suck, as does shuffling the staff...

BC04 has had their staff (except for media forced drops) for like what, 2 years?

and how is the dem national org? we were hearing how bush was organised prematurely and it didn't matter, but how well is JFK's national organization doing?? especially in "swing" states...

i think labor day is next monday.. thats when campaigns matter? no??

lets hope for a landlside!... to bad cali is on west coast... cause you know its over if cali goes W.. but if they do, it'll already have been over for a while before we know about them.

I agree. If the Dean campaign had done its job, Kerry would never be where he is today.

My guess is that Kerry is going to attempt to engage in the ugliest campaign of all time. Will it work? No, once you let your opponent be called hitler on a regular basis, theres really not much else you can say to get anyones attention.

Kerrys team failed on fire discipline. A smart campaign would have held their fire until they were in range, but to stay relevent, they had to shoot off most of the heavy artillery before it could do any real damage.

My guess is Bush is about to go 'distributed' using Arnold and Guliani to full effect. This will make in increasingly difficult to draw a bead on Bush.

If Bush follows the Lee Atwater book, he will be driving for the oppositions heartland very soon.

Bush is due to drop a few surprises on the table soon. Strategic reserve release, WMD's show up, capture of significant size, Germany suddenly signing on, that sort of thing. Each one designed to keep the Kerry campaign off balance and looking silly.

Ironic that two of Bush's brightest, highest-profile supporters (Rudy and Arnie) are from states that are supposed to be Democratic locks. If they take the banner back to NY and Cali they could put Kerry in a real pickle. Especially with nemesis issues like recall afterglow and Hillary to drive conservative voters to the polls in those states.

Does Kerry respond to the incursions on his own turf? Does he ignore it and push the swing states? Can he even get his campaign moving forward amid the SBVFT and concerns about flagging support?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5810443/

Howard Fineman kills Kerry with this line:

"Kerry likes to keep the power ultimately to himself, not trusting anyone to be the full recipient of delegated clout."

People who can't delegate make lousy executives.

A heavy reliance on polls and focus groups...now where have I heard/read that before????

If body language counts for anything in recent shots, it looks like even Theresa isn't all that nuts about Kerry. Forget about the war, the economy and all the rest. Bush wins because Kerry is unlikeable. That rain-barrel voice, the brow furrowed with phony concern, the slippery politician's manner. Say what you will about Teddy Kennedy, as least he's genuine.

Hmmm.

Anyone who has almost the entire MSM behind him and can't poll better than Kerry has, doesn't deserve to be elected a dogcatcher.

Come on you guys ... get with the
program. I have heard from very
reliable sources - the ultra-Lib
in the office next to mine - that
Kerry always starts bad(ly) and
comes on strong later. You
gotta wait for that 'October
Surprise'.

/ NOT :-}

Your July 14 posting quoted this from a news item: "The campaign now includes 37 separate domestic policy councils and 27 foreign policy groups, each with scores of members."

No wonder Sandy Berger had to steal so many copies of that classified document.

This campaign is such a joke, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that Kerry has no chance to win. Start off with the fact that he's got nothing to run on except his Vietnam service, and he's already trashed that thoroughly. I can't believe the DNC let him run on that, but they did. Now, add to that the fact that Kerry is behind before Bush has even really started campaigning. The Kerry campaign can't hold its own against a single "527" organization with a measely amount of cash and a single issue. Imagine what their chances are against a professional campaign machine? Kerry's campaign can't argue itself out of the Christmas in Cambodia debacle, imagine what will happen when the RNC starts running all the miles and miles of "anti-war Kerry" footage available. Or brings up the winter soldier debacle. Or the VVAW senator assassination issue.

Kerry is screwed, his only advantage is that he's not Bush. And that's not worth all that much.

The biggest stumbling block to a Kerry presidency is his inability to connect with the black voter. He never needed their vote in Mass and he is clearly uncomfortable in seeking it. Without 90% of a heavy black turnout, any democrat is toast.

A few observations...

First, I think between 2000 and now, the D's have fired just about every legit (and a few not-so-legit) arrows they can find. Unless there is incontrovertible proof of really bad things, I doubt anything is going to stick

Second, the bad guys, you know the terrorists, are really sticking it to the Dems: kidnapping FRENCH reporters (I thought if we acted like them, we'd be liked? hmmm....), bombings in Israel and Iraq, and on the way to work, the (pressumed) airline bombings in Russia and some Chechen Rebels have taken 200 parents and 200 Children(!) hostage on the first day of school.

Third, the Bush team STILL hasn't opened up the Kerry's A Liberal Pansy Can of Whoop Ass yet. Other than a few short run ads with references to flip-flops, gas taxes and defense programs, not really exact criticism of his senate record.

If Walker(?) Evans is right and the MSM is worth 15 pts to Kerry, we can see how really badly kerry would be doing in a fair fight (alternatively, the MSM is greatly over estimating thier influence...any one see any eveidence of that? hmm....)

Bah, got photogs on the brain, it's not Walker Evans, but Evan Thomas...

Kerry has survived in Mass politics because the media, led by the Boston Globe, has always played into his last minute campaign needs.
He's struggled against mediocre competition here so its not a big surprise he wasn't ready for prime time (even though the major media has consistently tried to bolster his candidacy as well).
Its deliciously ironic. Apparently "tested" yet actually totally inept, Kerry is a now a victim of this enablement effort.
With the bright lights on he is exposed as the blind, opportunistic, zero he has always been.

The race card hasn't been played much yet. Bush hasn't been depicted throwing Granny off the cliff lately. The Dems still have a few old standbys left.

"Apparently "tested" yet actually totally inept, Kerry is a now a victim of this enablement effort.
With the bright lights on he is exposed as the blind, opportunistic, zero he has always been."

Heh. It's like Affirmative Action for politicians.

I used to be a liberal, until I realized what today's "liberals" really are -- bitter, failed Marxists/Socialists. Kerry's history fits perfectly with this analysis, from his politicization of "Nam, to his cozying up with the Viet Cong, to his indifference to the Soviet threat, to his constant opposition to a strong America, to his unwavering love for the United Nations. I will never ever call myself a liberal again -- rather, I am a conservative -- a person who wants to conserve what has made this country so great. Knowing that there are others with similar beliefs such as mine gives me great comfort. Fight on against the true enemies of freedom -- today's liberals.

Kerry's first and middle initials now officially stand for Jucking Feenius. As in:

"The rapidly sinking presidential hopes of Sen. Jucking Feenius Kerry (D-MA) are coming to resemble the fate of the Titanic -- right down to the rearranging of deck chairs."