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Predicting Chapter 3
Posted by Will Collier  ·  29 August 2004

Ann Althouse has a nice piece today about the way the press has written their first drafts of the 2004 presidential campaign. In brief, Althouse says that Howard Dean's rise and fall were Chapter 1, and Kerry's sudden surge to the nomination was Chapter 2:

So Kerry rolled into the nomination, and the media were prepared to keep a steady flattering light on him until he ascended into the presidency in November. They thought the Kerry ascendancy would be chapter two of the history of the 2004 election, and they thought they were looking good and getting the story right.

But what if chapter two was the story of Kerry making Vietnam the centerpiece of his candidacy setting off an out-of-nowhere takedown by a bunch of veterans who have been pissed off at him for 35 years? No, no way could that be the story! We aren't going to talk about that. No, no… wait a minute. Check out these polls! The ads are making an impression. The ads are seriously wounding Kerry. This looks like the turning point of the whole campaign, and it seems that from here Kerry will fall into defeat.

I think Althouse is largely correct in reading the media reactions, although I believe this election will turn on current events, not those of 35 years ago. It was silly for anybody to treat Kerry's nomination as a coronation, particularly given that Bush enjoys all the advantages of an incumbent--in wartime, no less--and hasn't even had his own convention yet, to say nothing of the October debates. In the end, I think the Swift Vets will serve as one of many examples illustrating Kerry's fundamental inconsistency, and willingness to say or do whatever he thinks will be of political benefit at a given moment.

That said, the press won't read it that way. I can tell you straight up what Chapter 3 of the Media History will be. That chapter will be titled, "The Ghost Of Willie Horton." In the eyes of the press, their candidate-of-the-moment will not be brought down by his own statements, actions, history and policies, but rather will be stabbed in the back by low-down, dirty, nasty, meaner-than-we-are Republican media stunts.

That was the mantra after Michael Dukakis was buried in 1988. Never mind the fact that Dukakis had a by-the-numbers Massachusetts liberal record, was personally cold, arrogant, and condescending, and espoused policies much farther to the left than most of the country was willing to accept. Like Kerry, Dukakis was the media's candidate, and when he lost, there had to be some reason other than outright rejection based on his history and policies--after all, if the electorate rejected them, why, that's the same thing as rejecting the press. That could never happen.

Thus was born the legend of Willie Horton, and the dark avatar Lee Atwater, who stole away that which was meant to be Dukakis' by divine right of media acclamation. So shall it be with the Swift Vets, destined to be forever lambasted as having unfairly prevented JFK2 from ascending to presidential power. No sir, it won't have anything to do with the electorate actually choosing Bush as a superior candidate, much less rejecting the politics and policies of French John. It'll all be because of that nasty advertisement back in August, the one all the smart folks in the newsrooms tried to ignore out of existance.

You heard it here first... but trust me, you'll hear it again.

Comments

I am not sure, but didn't Al Gore run the Willie Horton first during the democrat primary in 1988?

Posted by: Dittybopper at August 29, 2004 01:49 PM

Gore brought up Horton's furlough during the Dem primaries. I don't believe he ran a TV ad about it.

Posted by: Will Collier at August 29, 2004 01:56 PM

It's an old adage that 'history is written by the victors' , but in American politcs, history is often written by the losers who occupy the halls of the media and the universities.

Every election has its issue, unfortunately for the old media, this election is turning on the inability of the press to stay ahead of the story.

Had the press been able to put aside its verdant hatred of George W. Bush, it would have done a better job in 'vetting' John Kerry during the early Democratic primary. They failed to do their job and the effect is that they have lost credibility in the eyes of their audience.

The fact that the "swift boat" story has been forced onto the media, and still has legs despite very heavy handed attempts to minimize it shows that they are playing catch up with the story. This is proof that the media can no longer drive an agenda the way it had free reign in doing in previous years.

To paraphrase a saying we have in my industry, "old media" is a hierarchial design trying to get by in a distributed processing world.

Posted by: Frank Martin at August 29, 2004 02:10 PM

But their best candiate was Lieberman (actually a great candidate) with Al Sharpton a distant second.

Posted by: aaron at August 29, 2004 03:27 PM

The media still drives public perceptions, but mostly only in the short-run. They often don't stand the test.

Posted by: aaron at August 29, 2004 03:29 PM

I had thought similar things but you're correct to say I read it here first... and elegant too. This is one of the best articles I've seen on this sight. Thank you.

Posted by: Birkel at August 29, 2004 05:21 PM

FWIW I too think you are 100% correct. Not that you'll get any credit for the observation (except from your loyal readers).

Posted by: Pamela at August 29, 2004 09:48 PM

And whatever you may think of Al Sharpton (who came to linger in the limelight as a result of his ardent defense of Tawana Brawley's faked abduction) he didn't try to tailor his pronouncements to fit what he thought the voters wanted to hear. Definitely an unusual display of integrity, for what it's worth.

But if you would like to reallly be entertained (or appalled) with some truly loony ideas about why some "progressives" think the conservatives are winning, take a look at the interview published in the UCBerkeley News with George Lakoff, professor of linguistics and cognitive science. URL:http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2003/10/27_lakoff.shtml

I commented on some of his points in my own blog, but you should definitely see the whole interview. Also please visit the website of the Rockridge Institute (http://www.rockridgeinstitute.org/) which he and a number of other progressive faculty of the University of California system started recently. According to the professor, the institute "offers its expertise and research on a nonpartisan basis to help progressives understand how best to get their messages across."

The Democratic Party has been losing ground around the country in his view, because the REPUBLICANS have fooled us into believing them by dominating the language framing political discussion.

This is like the assertion that pharmaceutical companies fooled us into believing in headaches by dominating the language framing the aspirin discussion.

Sorry, the gulf between the Democratic Party’s claims of fairness and noble compassion, and the actual depravity and expedience of the Party’s celebrated leaders are too conspicuous to escape notice by even such benighted folk as we commoners. The simple reason people like me have decamped from the democratic party over the last few decades, is disgust and dis-illusion. NOT, thank you very much, because of clever words by shadowy Republican manipulators.

It is my opinion that journalism has abandoned its claim to principled standards, and the this is what has driven the public to the Do-It-Yourself internet search, assisted by such as drudgereport.com and the growing crop of serious bloggers. We recognize that the internet has mis-information, but we also recognize that this no longer distinguishes it from traditional information sources.

A few years ago, RESPECTABLE journalists were unable to untangle Clinton’s definition of the word “is.” More recently they’ve had difficulty grasping the idea that an “ally” is a country that supports goals to which they have agreed, NOT one that obstructs. In the last weeks before the Republican National Convention, they are confused over whether the function of journalism is to report news or suppress it. At the current rate of regression, by election day journalists will have difficulty working out a use for their fingers beyond merely excavating their nostrils.

Posted by: David March at August 30, 2004 03:19 AM

Leave it to a Bezerkley Academic to
"forget" about how leftist both his
profession and the media are.

Must have slipped under his radar,
so to speak.

Posted by: pragmatist at August 30, 2004 01:20 PM

I think the professor needs to realize that the reason his "progressive" (what makes him think his ideas are progress) ideas have been rejected is that they do not result in progress. They, instead, result in more of the same and the people are fed up with the "more of the same" that their policies result in.

Posted by: dick at August 31, 2004 09:06 AM



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