Sweet Jesus. Why isn't this on the front page of every paper? Let's see, the best case scenario for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is what, hundreds of thousands of soldiers and civilians dead and massive destruction? And the worst case is World War III.

Scary stuff. The only thing (other than the US' strategic deterrence, of course) keeping China at bay presently is likely Taiwan's formidable defense structure. All those US-Taiwan weapon sales have luckily bought them some pretty significant capabilities, and therefore, time. that having been said, the situation is nearing the tipping point. Should China take direct action against Taiwan (or in another disputed area like the Senkakus or the Spratlys), the ball may truly begin rolling for Japan to develop an indiginous nuclear capability. Their latent potential in this area is enormous, and, if they're spooked enough, the massive societal changes that would be necessary to see their long-standing abhorrence of nukes disintegrate might well come about. This, of course, would complicate matters even further in the region.

These are nasty times, my friends, and Northeast Asia may well be the thorniest region we face in the decades to come. Taiwan may be the match that lights the keg.

Could this be related to this story?

Ken, just what I thought too.

Chinese love to bluff to 'save' face. Of course this bluffing could get out of hand, depending on how badly their leaders goofed. If they tried anything other than 'peaceful' reunification, they would face insurgents in Taiwam and guerrillas in the mainland. The best Americans could do is to watch. Once we are involved, the Chinese would have to rally against foreigners. Familiar? Communism only appeals to Western intelligentia who want to 'take things away from you on behalf of the common good'. Mainland Chinese have grown out of that a long time ago, the communists have to protect their flanks, which is the rest of China.

I have some rhetorical questions:

What are the odds that Taiwan has ~NOT~ got nukes?

What are the odds that Taiwan has very quietly let the top Chicoms know about them?

How many cities is the Emperor of Red China willing to loose?

(The difference between Chair of the PRC Communist party and an Emperor is exactly what? If it walks like a duck...)

Taiwan almost certainly is not nuclear capable. It has been the primary target of PLA intelligence assets for the last 50 years and the mainland is almost certain to know beforehand of the developement of any nuclear programs. This would provide them the perfect incentive and opportunity to strike pre-emptively while deflecting international criticism.

Actually, there is a great deal of difference between an emperor and the chairman of the communist party. Decision making in communist systems, at least older ones, tend to become decentralized and move away from the singular charismatic revolutionary. The Communist party is not monolithic as is often perceived by Western media. Neither Hu Jintao nor his predecessor Jiang Zemin have absolute power and it takes time and effort to build concensus within the core of the party apparat. Theres a lot of give and take debate within the Party itself, however none of this is public. It is only once that a general concensus is reached, and the orders are issued down the chain of party bureaucracy, is anything publically stated.

In response to IC, I swear to god I have to fight the urge to moan whenever anyone brings up the issue of "face" in discussing Asian politics. It is such an overused cliche to demarcate the backwards orient from the rational occident. Please keep in mind that the issue of face is no less important in the west, perhaps even more so in democratic nations. Except over in this neck of the woods, it is called Public Relations. The rest of your comment is no less silly.

Well, my understanding is we're busy deploying ballistic missile defense systems. So I'm happy to see the Chinese delay there attack.

But I strongly support Taiwan telling the butchers of Tiananmen Square to screw off.

Jing,

Points taken. Still, were I Taiwan, I'd of tried hard to get any ex-soviet fireworks that might have gotten loose a few years ago.

As to the decentralization, that to my limited understanding looks like what happened in the imperial era whenever the emperor lacked the power to crush all the warlords.

However, I again thank you for your thoughts. You are very likely better informed than I.

"I do not say Bonaparte will not come. I say he will not come by sea."

oops, the quote was from Admiral John Jervis, 1st Lord of St. Vincent.

http://www.wordiq.com/definition/John_Jervis%2C_1st_Earl_of_St_Vincent

"I do not say, my Lords, that the French will not come. I say only they will not come by sea". addressing the House of Lords as First Lord of the Admiralty in 1801.