Far from what many rightists think about European sympathies for Kerry most European leaders prefer him to Bush just because Bush is a known and Kerry a unknown and they share an assumption that Kerry can't be any worse than Bush with his record of negative impact on trans-Atlantic relations.

But there are the disturbing signs that Kerry is indeed quite similar to Bush in what he proposes and argues for.

So the short conclusion is: Don't expect relations across the Atlantic to turn better in the foreseeable future. One can attribute that to personal factors (Bush disliking Chirac, Schroeder disliking Bush, etc), but there is rather a deeper cause. US-American and European perspectives on the world are different and there is no Cold War enemy anymore to hide these policy differences.

Whether you like it or not, NATO is turning into the kind of international organization, you often accuse the UN of: an empty shell without a purpose.

Wow, how long did it take to find that piece? I'm suprised to see such a responsible and reasonable article in the times these days.

I don't know if this makes Kerry better or worse, but I don't think he's taking this blame America first attitude that the "Allies" aren't supporting us because Bush cheesed them off rather than the "allies" being spineless cowards because it appeases the Deaniacs in his base. I think he genuinely believes it himself.

As to the political implications.. Kerry's only statement resembling a stand on Iraq is that if he were President he'd somehow get the co-operation from the UN and the French that Bush can't, but every day there's more and more evidence that our "allies" abandoned us not because Bush was mean to them, but because they were bought and paid for with Saddam's oil money. An honest press reporting this would have resulted in Kerry's campaign dying before Reagan did. But we haven't honest media in 20 years.

The Old European has it right. The French, for example, decided quite some time ago that the US was their enemy and had to be harmed at all costs. This led to French actions such as passing NATO operational plans to the Serbs in the 1990s. Now I happen to think this idea is lunacy, given France's position, but the temporary absence of a threat to Euyrope's security has allowed such fantasies to grow.

I also think, with TOE, that European leaders will not find Kerry any improvement over Bush, especially when you consider his obligation to the most protectionist groups in the country. Indeed, I think Europeans will find that Bush will be the most multilateralist President of the US for the next 50 years.

Enjoy him while you have him Europeans, because the next few Presidents are going to be even more Jacksonian than Bush is.