Mid-term votes are not very predictive as to General Election outcomes. Of course the Beeb is spinning this as a protest over the Iraq war, but the Conservatives broadly supported that as well. This has all the signs of being a proxy referendum on Blair and his minions on a range of issues. There is profound scepticism in the country over the direction it is taking over Europe, there have been swingeing tax increases with no apparent effect on public services, and fuel prices are at a level that would cause riots in the US (they are on the point of causing serious civil disobedience in the UK). This is a deeply paternalistic government and everyone I know in the UK is fed up with the unwillingness of politicians to listen to them. If Blair is turfed out of office it will be this that is the catalyst. It's worth noting that people generally don't vote for politicians, they vote against them. The guy with the fewest negatives wins. Blair is saddled with a lot more negatives than when he came to power (or even at the last election). It will be this that does him in, not any one factor.

My prediction (if anyone cares):

If Blair comes through, it's proof the Brits want to further integrate into EUrope.

If Blair doesn't come through, it's proof that the Brits didn't want to go to war in Iraq.

The reverse will not even be considered....

We tend to have a positive outlook on Blair because of his vocal support for President Bush and Iraq. It is worth remembering that there are a lot of reasons to DISlike Tony Blair, too.
His administration has seen some pretty scary extensions of governmental power (and this was BEFORE 9-11), near-riots over the high cost of gasoline (again, BEFORE the current price hike), opposing a referendum on England's membership in the EU, and a moreso-than-normal amount of asinine shenanigans in his cabinet and his judicial appointments.
Finally, the one thing he really DID promise his electorate- that he'd repair the badly-broken National Health Service- he's failed badly at.
Folks, if we in America were voting for President Blair's second term- Iraq or no Iraq, he'd be SOL.

That being said... Dean's right. If Blair gets canned, the media will have no brief whatsoever that any cause other than his relationship with the Bush Administration is the real reason.

If he loses, he's earned an extended vacation to relax and plan his future--and if he happens by my neck of the woods, I'd be honored to buy the man a drink. For the most part his politics are not mine, but he's been a worthy ally of the United States.