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New Math
Posted by Stephen Green  ·   8 March 2004

The Christain Science Monitor consults Rosy Scenario and decides that Social Security isn't in need of any overhaul:

But some economists see any needed adjustments as modest, and perhaps not even needed at present. Here are their arguments.

The trustees of the Social Security administration project say that the payroll tax will provide enough revenue to cover all benefits through 2018. Then the system can draw on both payroll taxes and the Treasury bonds in its trust fund to pay all benefits through 2042.

That's a long time - long enough to weather most of the baby-boomer bulge.

Read that middle graf again, and see if you can tell me what's wrong with it.

If you've given up, I'll tell you: the "trust fund" is financial fiction. It's trickery. It doesn't exist. Treasury bonds are money the government loans to itself. Imagine if you went and spent your own $500-a-month household budget surplus to make a backyard habitat for snail darters. You promised yourself you'd pay back the money, by writing yourself an IOU for the $500 each month, and depositing them in your piggy bank.

The snail darters sure are happy, but what happens when you retire, and that $500 monthly surplus becomes a $100 deficit? Can you pay the mortgage with your collection of "I OWE ME $500" slips of paper?

Congress -- and the Christian Science Monitor -- thinks you can.

Comments

Not to mention that there are going to be a bunch of us around in 2042. I'll be 78 then, and I plan on being here then and for a while after.

Posted by: Robert at March 8, 2004 02:48 PM

Gee...2018. Lemme check...yup, thought so, my projected retirement date is 4/1/2018. Yes, I purposely chose April Fool's Day.

Posted by: Rick at March 8, 2004 02:50 PM

It is almost depressing that so many ostensibly educated people cannot grasp that Social Security bonds are merely a promise by future Congresses and, in turn, future taxpayers to fund the lifestyle of retirees at some future date, and that defaulting on such promises will carry very different ramifications than a default on bonds held by entities other than the U.S. government. In fact, it may turn out that defaulting on the S.S. bonds makes the U.S. more credit-worthy, and lowers interest rates; precisely the opposite effect of a default on "real" bonds.

Posted by: Will Allen at March 8, 2004 03:11 PM

Shhh! The voters aren't supposed to know that about the trust fund.

Signed,
Democrats and Republicans

Posted by: Bruce Kratofil at March 8, 2004 03:34 PM

If social security is to ease the poverty of eld, then it should be means tested. Calling it "insurance" is just plain quaint.

Posted by: Theodopoulos Pherecydes at March 8, 2004 04:16 PM

We've all heard about the trust fund and how it's full of IOUs. But are these IOUs actual T-bills? Does this represent money the government is lending to itself and accounting for? If it is, then we're okay -- because those bills aren't forever, they're 30 or 50 years in maturity and they pay interest. At the moment, the government may be sucking the money up again as fast as those bonds come due (simply by rolling the bills over another 30 years) but when we move into crunch time, we could simply stop "borrowing" from the trust fund.

That will be painful, sure, but it's a far cry from having to actually fund the thing from scratch.

If, however, they have created some kind of non-interest-bearing, non-callable, open-ended security in lieu of a plain old T-bill and stocked the Social Security trust fund with those, then we're in deep shit after all, and we have to accept that the only way to make Social Security payments after 2018 will be to have them come out of the general fund -- i.e., discretionary spending, paid for by this year's income and payroll taxes.

"No taxation without representation" was a pretty good slogan (still is, in DC). What about the converse? "No representation without taxation." Senior citizens in the U.S. vote like crazy. They dominate Florida. They have such huge voting clout that politicians are incapable of saying no to them. Prescription drugs, free. Social security forever. Don't worry about paying for it.

That's going to get much, much worse when the baby boomers get old. I don't want to be paying their alimony checks and their viagra bills out of my taxes! They're the ones spending their Social Security surplus now -- why should they then be allowed to collect it later, out of my paycheck?

So how about this: restrict voting privileges in the U.S. to members of households with earned income above $5,000 per year. Interest, dividends, Social Security don't count. No representation without taxation.

Ben

Posted by: ben at March 8, 2004 06:28 PM

No, ben, these are not the same intruments sold on the open market; if they were, interest rates would be considerably higher. Furthermore, it makes no difference if they are "interest-bearing", since it simply remains a promise to be fufilled by future taxpayers.

Any bond, whether it be, corporate or government, is simply an I.O.U., a promise to repay at a future date with some amount of interest tacked on. The only thing that makes this promise worthwhile is the deterrent effect on the bond issuer, in the form of the cost of default. The U.S. doesn't default on the bonds it auctions because the net cost of doing so, in the form of higher interest rates and economic chaos, vs.the savings gained from no longer making interest payments, would be extraordinarily high. SS bond default is much more possible, and, in fact, probable, particularly when the cost of honoring the bonds becomes more costly than defaulting on them. As I stated above, defaulting on the SS bonds would probably make the U.S. government more credit worthy, and actually lower interest rates. There isn't a chance in hell that those promises will be completely honored.

Posted by: Will Allen at March 8, 2004 07:06 PM

A scene from "Dumb and Dumber" comes to mind regarding the "and the Treasury bonds in its trust fund" line.

What we need is a lock box. Yeah, that will do the trick...

Posted by: Chrees at March 8, 2004 07:11 PM

But even under their rosey projection, taxes need to be raised now.

AND

they assume savings from reduced educational costs.LOL

Posted by: Sean at March 8, 2004 07:51 PM


Each accounting entry has two sides, so does the trust fund:

The flip side is that the national debt is overstated by the debt to the trust fund. We don't owe as much as we say we owe, because some of the debt is fictional debt to ourselves.

Posted by: TV at March 8, 2004 08:22 PM

Bill Buckley put it brilliantly when he said that the 'Lock Box' bore as much resemblance to reality as thirteen-year-old girls writing Valentines to themselves.

Posted by: David Gillies at March 8, 2004 11:37 PM

Hey, all we need is those 2.6 million or whatever jobs to appear out of nowhere, and the problem will be solved! _Their_ payroll taxes will cover the SS shortage! I know - let's build a new Cabinet department for securing our homeland, and the gummint can hire 2.6 million people to run it!

Aw damn....

Posted by: legion at March 9, 2004 10:48 AM

Legion, keep pointing out your ignorance; I love it. There is no current shortage in SS. It's all about demographics. 100% employment wouldn't help (as if that would even benefit the economy), that's why we're concerned.

Posted by: aaron at March 9, 2004 01:39 PM

TO: Stephen Green
RE: My Limited Understanding....

...of the Social Security system tells me that the way they collect the money is not in need of an overhaul. That seems to work VERY well.

The problem is that Congress needs to stop ripping the Social Security funds off and misallocating them to unrelated activities.

Regards,

Chuck(le)

Posted by: Chuck Pelto at March 10, 2004 09:56 AM



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