Read this and try not to squirm:
The Bush administration Friday downplayed its ballooning cost estimates for the Medicare reform and prescription drug package by saying it was a just a matter of a few percentage points.
When President George W. Bush pushed to get the legislation through Congress, he cited Congressional Budget Office forecasts that said the legislation would cost $400 billion over 10 years.
However, the Department of Health and Human Services has told the White House budget office it now believes the legislation will cost between $530 billion and $540 billion during the next 10 years.
"A few percentage points" means, in this case, about 30 damn percent. Try using that math next time you're applying for a mortgage.
The only way it is a few percentage points is if you look at it as an overage by year. 30% over ten years 3% per year (not really, but math is hard ;)) I think it is a dishonest way to put it though.
Actually he's saying the difference is only 1 or 2% of the entire Medicare budget for the next 10 years.
I'm going to try that when it's raise-time. "I think I deserve only a 1% raise: 1% of the company's projected salary expenses for the next 10 years." It will be great. I'll be able to retire very well and very young.
Is it too much to hope that this President would be able to resist the call to allow the baby boomers to spend two lifetimes worth of money on their own comfort? And this drug benefit is going to mean that every time you see some vapid useless TV spot for a drug -- as though consumers watching Oprah should be telling their doctors which drugs they want -- you can be comforted in knowing that your tax dollars are paying for that airtime. How did President Bush become the man responsible for massive new entitlement programs? This isn't just overspending -- this is institutionalizing a huge suck on public resources. I used to believe that the Republican party was against this sort of thing, but now I find out that the only ones I can rely on to be serious about keeping some sanity in the spending process are the wing-nut psychos like Chris Cox in CA. So the only way I get a little fiscal discipline is by taking his culture war viciousness as part of the package? Anger and despair. And a larger percentage of my portfolio in metals and foreign assets.
It's quite possible they're referring to "a few percentage points" difference in some of the many assumptions that go into making an estimate of the cost of a program like this. Depending on the variable, and the assumptions made, a slight change can make a huge difference in the bottom line.
But policy makers don't concern themselves with those issues. They need one number and they need it now, and they don't care about risks, uncertainties, or anything else.
Having said that, the program was too damn expensive at $400 billion and should have been voted down...
I think we can be sure that the Boy King will be bragging about this new entitlement in the summer and fall. Meanwhile people will be looking at each other and wondering if he's as oblivious as he acts.
