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Posted by Stephen Green  ·  29 January 2004

Are we closing in on Osama (or his remains)? Maybe:

Military spokesman Lt Col Bryan Hilferty said the military now believed it could seize him within months.

“We have a variety of intelligence and we’re sure we’re going to catch Osama bin Laden and (fugitive Taliban leader) Mullah Omar this year,” Hilferty said.

“We’ve learned lessons from Iraq and we’re getting improved intelligence from the Afghan people.”

Hilferty declined to comment on where exactly bin Laden or Mullah Omar might be hiding, but his optimism coincides with comments from US officials in Washington that the military is planning a spring offensive against Taliban and al Qaida holdouts.

I've done a little digging through the archives here, but can't find any other reference to a US Army officer sounding that confident about getting bin Laden. Anyone's memory better than mine?

Comments

Seems to be a message the command is pushing pretty hard.

Posted by: Joe at January 29, 2004 02:41 PM

No, no better memory on that. But I do remember an AQ spokesman saying in early 2003 that OBL would become a martyr in 2003.

I'm with you though, Stephen. I think any so-called martyrdom happened in 2001.

Posted by: denise at January 29, 2004 04:55 PM

I find this very surprising. Politicians pulls this kind of stunt ("Peace is just around the corner" "There is a light at the end of the tunnel"), the military doesn't.

Posted by: Bill Peschel at January 29, 2004 06:28 PM

Of course, this could also be a part of the psychological war they're playing with OBL. In fact, that's the way I would bet. In this scenario, they'll use their ability to monitor cellphone/e-mail communications and trace how the word is spreading.

They may have no idea at all where OBL is, but they'll find out this way.

Posted by: Bill Peschel at January 29, 2004 06:31 PM

I don't remember any specific quotes or have any links, but I seem to remember some optiomism at Tora Bora that later proved unfounded.

Still this is unusual commentary from a military man... his mouth is writing a pretty big check, let's hope it gets cashed.

Personally, I think he was buried in secret years ago, so he can be an Elvis like legend inspiring martyrs for years after his death. I would love to be wrong though.

Posted by: MarkD at January 29, 2004 07:19 PM

My assumption -- actually, it's more than that, I'm absolutely dead sure of it -- is that they're using the same contacts matrix software they used to find Saddam -- I blogged about this, though I'm not going to look it up for anyone right now. And they feel they're getting closer and closer to bin Laden via it the same way they correctly felt they were closing in on Saddam.

This would also seem to suggest extremely strongly that those who said he was dead were, of course, wrong.

I wouldn't count chickens before they're hatched, but it's not bad news.

Posted by: Gary Farber at January 29, 2004 08:53 PM

Actually I am not sure if it would be good if he is caught (provided he is still alive). I am afraid that there would be a tremendous pressure about "we caught him, we won the war on terror, finish it". Terror Inc. is far bigger than Garbage bin Laden. He is only one, albeit big, piece of a huge puzzle, and I don't believe that after his death (or proof of it) other terrorists would say "oh, ok, then let's go home".

Vilmos

Posted by: Vilmos Soti at January 29, 2004 09:31 PM

Big deal. Usama would no longer be a threat, even if it does nothing about all the other jihadis out there. Catch him, and boil him in bacon grease. Its still better than he deserves. And that would send a message to all the others.

Posted by: Ben at January 30, 2004 01:31 AM

I didn't like it when Clark made his little no-terrorism promise, and I don't much care for this either.

While it's devoutly to be wished that bin Laden is already a coat of interior paint in a cave somewhere, it would be nice to perp-walk him (although my own suggestion involves a helicopter, lower Manhattan and an open hatch).

Posted by: DrSteve at January 30, 2004 07:39 AM

Squad Leader: Report, soldier!

Foot Soldier1: Uh...we got a leg, sir.

Foot Soldier2: And a beard.

Foot Soldier1: Shut up! I wanted to keep that!

Posted by: Ian Wood at January 30, 2004 08:12 AM



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