Here's Robert Samuelson on the improving (or declining) economy:

Gosh, the news seems good. People should have ample spending money. After the Iraq war, confidence indicators have increased. So have profits and stocks. Corporate debt levels have dropped -- a point Greenspan has emphasized -- freeing cash for plant and equipment spending. Why shouldn't the economy get better? Well, here are a few reasons:

• The job market still stinks. This could undermine consumer confidence and spending (though initial weekly unemployment claims recently dropped below 400,000 for the first time since February).

• State and local government tax increases and spending cuts could neutralize some of the federal tax cut. To balance their 2004 budgets, 31 states have cut spending, reports the National Conference of State Legislatures.

• Heavy debts may convince consumers to repay loans rather than increase spending (households devote about 14 percent of disposable income to debt payments, near the recent peak of 14.4 percent).

• Stagnant economies in Europe, Japan and Latin America could dampen exports.

• Rising mortgage rates -- they're up since June -- could slow the refinancing boom and temper (or reverse) home price increases.

• High office vacancy rates and surplus factory capacity could continue to deter business investment in buildings and equipment.

So the evidence is baffling.

Last year, I was too bullish on the economy, convinced that Terror War spending would cause enough increase in aggregate demand to jumpstart us out of the doldrums. This year, perhaps, I've been too bearish, convinced of growth no better than 2.5-3%.

So what's going to happen? Not even the experts know for sure.