Yeah, but are we willing to stop them if they try?

We better be. I had a strong feeling that was what they were planning. That kind of opportunism sickens me. If they think they can buy northern Iraq with American blood they are sorely mistaken.

This is gonna suck.

What do the Turks exactly plan to accomplish? Control them? Fight and exterminate the Kurdish population of Northern Iraq? This smells of the worst opportunism but to what ends?

Someone please enlighten me on this bonehead move.

Let's see. They've just pissed away any chance of joining the European Union at any point in the next 50 years.

Greek Cyprus will join the EU and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus will be marginalised even more.

If they persist in such foolishness, they may even be sanctioned from NATO.

I wonder what the Greeks are thinking of this?

--Shawn Pickrell

As an ignorant American, I tend to be sympathetic to the Kurds. Can't say exactly why. But somehow I feel other ignorant Americans will have the same sympathy. There's something about those feisty little buggers, PKK notwithstanding.

If the Turks come in busting heads, it's not going to go well for them. Kurdistan, baby!

Either, the Turks have stones the size of footballs or they are stooopid. Or both.

Both I think. Kirkuk is the prize here, 10 Billion barrel oil reserves, at $20-50/barrel, is $200-$500 billion...a bit more than our aid package.

So if the Turks try for Kirkuk, at some economic level it's a rational move, but on balance, it will be very foolish.

Worst case: Kurds and 101st Airborne slugging it out with Turkish troops in Kirkuk.

I give that very low odds of happening, but it's not totally beyond the pale.

This really worries me. I do not believe we will try to dislodge them with threats. And I've really been concerned about our talk of ONE Iraq. From what little I know about the situation, the Kurds are at least as deserving of a homeland as the Palastinians (and the Israeli's for that matter I guess). The Turks seem pretty hard up to prevent that. Looks like more diplomacy problems to sadden Tom Daschle. It really sucks.

If we have to vaporize Turkish troops in order to prevent them from massacreing Kurds, let me register my approval in advance.

I know the costs of doing so would be enormous, but the costs of *not* doing so would be inconceivable.

Right. That very thought occurred to me when I heard that Turkey was moving into the Kurdish area. "If the Palestinians are deserving of a state, why aren't the Kurd?"

In fact, the Kurds have a better claim than the Pals--seeing as they already have a functional government.

If we're going to discuss nightmare scenarios, wouldn't any Turkish armor be extremely susceptible to attack from the air, if they moved on Kirkuk? Would the Turks really risk their entire Air Force in an attempt to provide air cover? How fast can the air wings be scrambled from Incrilik, if things turn bad. That'll be the sign that the feces has hit the fan; if the planes at Incrilik bug out, or even more astoundingly, the Turks attempt to seize them. I know, I know, I must be drinking the cheap Scotch, but war has a way of producing what was previously thought impossible. I don't think many in the very pleasant European summer of 1914 thought the ensuing years would see the annihilation of an entire generation. Would the Turks really risk their entire geo-political alignment in pursuit of a goal that is a one in a thousand risk? I hope this is simply idle worry.

Well, if we had to fight the Turks, we'd be toast. Remember, we don't have any sort of armor in the North, and air support has to come all the way from the west. The Turks would have both.

That's why the Turks are doing this. They know there's nothing we could do about it, even if we wanted to.

I have to say, if nothing else, this has shown who the US's friends are.

The retired generals don't seem to see this as too serious. The Turks have forces this size in Northern Iraq a lot.

Their military may be tough, but they'd be stupid to get in the way. We may have some Shock and Awe left over if the Iraqis collapse, as is starting to look more possible all the time. We've already made the point that the oil is the property of the Iraqi people. Saddam may be dead. The leaks are that we have evidence that he was pulled out of the rubble with "frantic digging" and carried away on a stretcher. There are reports that his generals are packing to leave Baghdad. If things are this bad for Saddam's regime, I don't think anybody else in the vicinity should feel like trying to move into the vacuum, while our blood is up.

The Turks have just passed up 20 or 30 billion, do they really want to make it worse by poking the 800 lb gorilla with a sharp stick?

The Turks are moving into northern Iraq. Is that an attack on or a threat against American forces? Probably not - it is the Kurds they are after. If the Iraqis or Kurds defend themselves against this intrusion, so what. But what would it mean in the context of NATO, if a third party (Iran? US?) tried to counter these operations with force?

BTW, even if all third parties remained neutral, I'd expect casualties among US soldiers in the tens of thousands if there was a full scale confrontation between Turkey and the US. Turkish military is quite different from the Iraqi, plus they play on their home turf.
So there is no realistic option to stop them from whatever they want to do at the moment. Of course they are are risking quite a lot in terms of economic relations and integration into the EU - but the Kurdish question has been their top priority for decades.

With every Turkish soldier in Iraq, the probability of a change of mind in the Iranian government rises. I guess they'll not sit silently at the sideline should Turkey try to establish a protectorate of its own.

Let's hope the Turks restrict themselves - somehow I doubt it...

well if i were the turks, i wouldn't want to really try this... the US has a fair number of bases that are massively well stocked (likely with bottled sunshine)

and the us can take out tanks via the air really freaking well.. as can light infantry (marines say that tank killing is fun and easy!)

they will calm down fast.. the US can make it very hard on them, very fast, and they'd be stupid to push it

Unfortunately, it looks like the Turks have adopted a Bush Doctrine of their own. I find it extremely unlikely that the US will attack Turkish troops, even if they roll all the way through to the Mosul oil fields.

They passed up $30B because they knew they could hold out for $100B to end the slaughter of the Kurds.

well, there is a point to be seriously considered. turks have been in the area (northern iraq) for about 10 or 15 years (for the fight against PKK). they are well familiarized with the region and its people. their troops are very experienced. i do not think that they want a conflict with US but if it occurs, Turks will be a very tough opponent - unlike iraqis