Vodkapundit - Sauerkraut

Sauerkraut

Posted by Stephen Green · 23 September 2002

Lileks, natch, sums up the German elections with all the cheerful spite we’ve come to love and expect:

Well, it seems Gerhard Schroeder has won election in Germany.
Of course, Hitler did the same thing.

But – What’s It All Mean?

Immediately? Not much. Germany will continue to be ruled by a center-left coalition, with the dog getting occasionally wagged by the Green Party tail. (Speaking of Green Party tail, will someone please introduce any one of those fine ladies to Mr. Gillette?) The German economy will remain in the can, and relations with the US will stay sour at best.

In the middle term, the election could very well accelerate the US moving our troops out of Europe. V Corps has been in Germany since, well, we forced the Rhine in the spring of ’45. That’s two heavy divisions, plus some really nifty corps assets like big guns, Apache attack choppers, and more really big guns.

It probably won’t come as much of a shock to Berlin when we deploy those troops elsewhere. But they’ll be more than disappointed later on, when we tell them those 50,000-plus soldiers won’t be going back anytime soon. Or any time at all.

Longer term, none of this bodes well for European stability. Don’t expect Germany suddenly to turn revanchist and march into Poland, but don’t expect much good to come of it, either.

Left to their own devices in the 20th Century, Europe gave us world wars, chemical warfare, Communist totalitarianism, fascist totalitarianism, industrialized genocide, an Iron Curtain, ethnic cleansing, and the first modern terrorist groups.

Left to themselves in the 21st Century, Europe would be too accommodating of barbarism to help us protect them (or ourselves), and too poor to afford the accommodations they’d like to keep providing.

Like it or not, we need Europe and they need us. But Schroeder’s anti-American fueled election victory will give courage to further anti-American electoral rabble in France, Belgium, and elsewhere. The trans-Atlantic partnership that promoted wealth and peace for 50 years, may well be coming to an end.

Should it come to that, both North America and Europe would be poorer and less secure.

And there’s not a damn thing we can do about it.

Comments

Glenn Reynolds has a link about how this could actually push France (and others perhaps?) closer to the US. That would be interesting.

There is a conceivable upside to this as Europe seems to be receiving aftershock upon aftershock to 9/11. They are the Shire, guarded by Gondor, with no Mordor and all the freedom in the world to condemn their guardians. That little friendly trees and butterflies world has gone Screeeeeech! to a halt. How many more clubs need to go upside their heads to get it. If they want US invovlement in Europe, they'd better decide that WEstern Civilization is worth defending, worth fighting for, worth dying for, and, worst of all, worth killing for. If it isn't, they will lose that civilization and the US will cut them loose before being dragged over that cliff.
(I also imagine Eeropean immigration to the States would rise dramatically, and we should welcome them with open arms, because they will be the best and brightest, yet more of a catastrophe for Europe.)

You've now waken up Europe. Now it's time to get out of bed.

Posted by: Andrew at September 23, 2002 08:08 AM

Do we need Europe? I'm not convinced, but we certainly don't need our military personnel in Germany or their family members either. It's time to pull them out, past time in my opinion. We can remain in NATO (again, I am not a fan of the organization), but Germany needs to learn to defend itself. They have taken us and their defense for granted for far too long. Most Germans are paralysed when it comes to foreign policy. I lived there during the whole Yugoslavia debacle and all my German friends could say was "the Americans are the only ones who do this" (stop the killing). It is past time for us to be gone when we can't depend on 'help' from some of our 'allies'.

Posted by: Moira Rogow at September 23, 2002 09:07 AM

How about arranging for a base or two or three in, say, Poland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, etc. As well as proposing a nice, generous, bilateral trade agreement with some of these former serfs, definetely to include the Turks. Seems to me if State were to stop fixating on the EU and the major Europowers, there's a fair amount we could do to undermine the anti-American collectivist angst spreading through the continent.

Posted by: Lloyd at September 23, 2002 11:20 AM

Far be it from me to stomp all over a great Lileks line...but Hitler wasn't elected in Germany. He actually lost the presidential elections, and his party actually lost a significant percentage of their vote in 1932 (%30). He was APPOINTED Chancellor by Hindenburg because in the chaos around the last days of Weimar, he promised to create a working coalition (something he had previously refused to do) of the Nazis plus other Right parties.

Hate to be a damp blanket..

Posted by: Jeff B. at September 23, 2002 11:44 AM

>> but Hitler wasn't elected in Germany. He actually lost the presidential elections

Yes, but he later won a referendum with over 90+%.

After the war, there were no Nazis in Germany and everyone in France was part of the resistance.

However, when it was time to stand up to be counted, things were a bit different.

Posted by: Andy Freeman at September 23, 2002 12:40 PM

Lloyd, I posted something similar a few days ago. It makes a lot of sense to me; those states need our help a lot more than the Western part of the continent does, and they seem friendlier than Germany and France to boot.

Another advantage is that if Russia starts acting up, we'd be closer to them, and able to defend the countries that would be their first targets. They're closer to the ME to boot, if that matters.

Posted by: Mac Thomason at September 23, 2002 12:45 PM

The Islamic world continues to drive a wedge between America and Europe. The left in France, UK, Germany, Canada, America and other parts of Europe continue to suck up to the new Islamic immigrants for votes. Blame "tolerance" for the demise of the western world. I am shocked at how quickly it is happening.

The Moslems are out to settle the score and they have not forgotten the Crusades. Bin Laden is the devil but he is a cleaver devil.

Posted by: Ray Davis at September 23, 2002 03:12 PM

Re: Jeff B.'s comment

I quote from ABC news:

"Official results released early Monday showed the Social Democrats and Greens won a combined 47.1 percent of the vote for the lower house, or Bundestag."

If you say Hitler was not elected because he could not win a majority of the votes, then what about Schroeder? Or for that matter, Bill Clinton?

Posted by: Floyd McWilliams at September 23, 2002 04:27 PM

Total strength of US forces + dependents in Germany is around 120,000. So if the US pulls out, they lose that expenditure from their economy. Big hit. But the bigger hit is that the US portion of V Corps is a HUGE chunk of AFCENT's combat power. So if the Jerries want to maintain anything like a credible force, they have to up defence expenditure. Double whammy.

Lets pull BAOR out as well and compound their problems. We might need it if and when the UK decides to secede from the EU.

Posted by: David Gillies at September 23, 2002 05:14 PM