Michael Ledeen reports the latest from Iran:
The regime is so paranoid that it is even purging the military. A number of senior officers have been forced into early retirement, and the regime is restructuring the armed forces. This reinforces the popular belief that in the event of the anti-regime uprising for which everyone is waiting, the military commanders will join the insurrectionaries. This is probably correct; just last week, in demonstrations in working-class neighborhoods in the south of Tehran, a number of soldiers joined the ranks of the protesters. And why not? Most Iranian workers haven't been paid for months, and the military is no better off.
So who wants to start a pool on how long before revolution comes (again) to Iran? I've got five bucks on May 5, 2003.
No specific date on which I'd bet, but I think it will be earlier than that,
I'm thinking if not exactly in tandem, close to it, with events next door.
Keeping up with the Hussein's, and all.
I have to agree with Andrew X. The revolution starts no later than it becomes clear that we're going to win in Iraq. Signifigant reverses on our part might delay it. More interestingly, it could kick off before we're ready to hit Saddam and throw everyone's plans into the shredder. Interesting times...
I have to agree with Andrew X. The revolution starts no later than it becomes clear that we're going to win in Iraq. Signifigant reverses on our part might delay it. More interestingly, it could kick off before we're ready to hit Saddam and throw everyone's plans into the shredder. Interesting times...
