Arafat could stop the terrorists, if he were really wanted to, and/or were really in charge. How do I know? Because Pakistani President Musharraf, even with a renegade intelligence agency to deal with, has managed to almost completely halt terrorist incursions into India-controlled Kashmir.
India said yesterday that it has noticed a significant drop in infiltration of militants from across Pakistan into Kashmir and held out the hope of withdrawing troops from its border in two months. "So far as trans-border terrorism is concerned there has been considerable decline," Defense Minister George Fernandes told reporters.
Why did Musharraf decide to act like a grown up and do the right thing for his neighbor? Because his neighbor, India, has a great big stick -- a good army and a bunch of nukes -- and the willingness to use it.
Arafat really ought to understand that he can only push the Israelis so far before they have to get just as serious as India.
Even Edward Said, notorious Palestinian backer and terrorism in quotes maker, thinks Arafat could rein in what he would call "terrorists."
In the Egyptian paper Al-Ahram, Said wrote:
“He never really reined in Hamas and Islamic Jihad which suited Israel perfectly: it would have a ready- made excuse to use the so-called martyr's (mindless) suicide bombings to further diminish and punish the whole people. If there is one thing along with Arafat's ruinous regime that has done us more harm as a cause it is this calamitous policy of killing Israeli civilians, which further proves to the world that we are indeed terrorists and an immoral movement. For what gain no one has been able to say.”
Yup.. one hopes that this drop in incursions will be permanent (at least as long as Musharraf is in power). Ah, the wonders that the glare from the international community will do for you.
No war means folks in India (and Pakistan) can get back to the business of selling more stuff to each other, the Americans and the rest of the world thereby making more money.
Good point. Here's the rub. Musharraf appears to be a rational actor and a calculating nationalist. If he allows India to be pushed into making good on its threats, Pakistan is devastated. I'm skeptical that he's a good guy, but he doesn't want that. So he avoids it.
Does Arafat lose if he pushes the Israelis too far? What does he care if his people suffer massive casualties? Nothing; he'll just cry crocodile tears to a credulous press. If he triggers a conventional war, when he loses he'll call in the "international community" to save his bacon and harrass Israel into giving back its war gains. And if Israel were to use nukes other than in the last extremity, it would be finished as a nation.
Israel has a good army and a bunch of nukes. It can get as serious as India, and it won't help. Arafat, unfortunately, understands that.
Musharraf is just buying time. He cannot control the Jehadis for long. If there is peace suddenly in Pakistan, then the Shias will go and butcher the Sunnis or vice-versa. The point is that these muslims cannot remain idle without murdering someone. So what the Pakistani Govt. found is to find a way to direct that anger outside Pakistan. So they keep the Kashmir issue alive.
Pakistan has become the next Afghanistan and Musharraf is the most dangerous dictator around.
